GERMANY: Government Upwardly Revises GDP Projection

Recent Euribor trades highlight divergences in opinion in the path for ECB policy rates:

• Put strips: ERZ5 97.9375 put, ERZ5 97.875 put, ERH6 97.9375 put and ERM6 97.8125 put. Paper pays 4.25 for 2k.
• ERH6 98.125/25 call spread, paper pays 4.25 for 4k

• -5,000 TUZ5 104-15.88, post time bid at 0816:35ET, DV01 $208,000.
• The 2Y contract trades 104-16 last (+.62)

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• At 10:10 ET 15:10 BST, President Donald Trump will deliver remarks to the White House Religious Liberty Commission.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump's economic policies need more time, following Friday's soft jobs report. Bessent downplayed the impact of Trump’s tariff agenda on US manufacturing jobs.
• Bessent warned that the US would have to refund half of the tariffs it has collected if it loses a case challenging Trump’s emergency declaration at the Supreme Court.
• BRICS countries will meet virtually today to dicuss the impact of Trump's tariffs.
• The already-strained relationship between Washington and Seoul took another hit after hundreds of South Korean workers were swept up in an immigration raid in Georgia.
• A new Pentagon strategy report is expected to put domestic considerations above countering adversaries.
• The implied probability of a government shutdown on October 1 ticked up to roughly 50%.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will today take the first step of a 'nuclear option' to advance executive branch nominees.  
• The US and EU appear closer to coordinating new sanctions on Russia, but political obstacles may undermine the process.
• Trump issued a ‘last warning’ to Hamas as Israel initiates a new military phase in Gaza City.
• IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said there is "still time" for a nuclear deal with Iran.
• Poll of the Day: The Trump Administration has declared more emergencies than any of its predecessors.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF