BONDS: Gilts Draw Support From Tsys, BTPs Still Outperform EGB Peers
Dec-03 12:58
Gilts outperform EGBs in recent trade, with an extension higher in U.S. Tsys providing support to wider core global FI markets. Macro headline flow remains limited ahead of the impending ADP report.
- Bund yields within 1bp of yesterday’s close while gilts twist flatten. Gilt/Bunds threatening a break below 170bp, on track for the lowest close of ’25. A break of the round number would expose the Sep ’24 closing low at ~162bp.
- BTPs the outperformer in the EGB space, deriving support from firmer-than-expected Italian PMI data and uptick in European equities. BTP/Bund spread on track for the first sub-70bp close since ’10.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EGB OPTIONS: DUZ5 106.30 Puts Lifted
Nov-03 12:53
DUZ5 106.30 puts paper paid 0.25 (synth) on 10K a little earlier.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Nov-03 12:45
- EUR/USD: Nov04 $1.1525(E1.0bln), $1.1635-40(E1.3bln); Nov05 $1.1600-20(E1.4bln); Nov06 $1.1400(E1.4bln), $1.1500(E1.5bln), $1.1550(E1.2bln), $1.1600(E1.4bln), $1.1715(E1.5bln)
- USD/JPY: Nov06 Y152.00($1.0bln), Y155.00($1.6bln), Y155.35($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Nov04 0.6625-30(A$1.2bln)
- NZD/USD: Nov05 $0.5650(N$1.1bln), $0.5675(N$1.0bln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
Nov-03 12:26
- In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. This suggests a short-term bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The next important support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.13. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
- The trend structure in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. A break of this level would open 94.24, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch 92.75, the 20-day EMA.
Trending Top
Jan-30 21:43
Jan-30 21:11
