POWER: Germany’s No-Bid Offshore Wind Auction Raises Subsidy Question

Aug-06 12:29

Germany’s failure to attract any bids in the latest offshore wind auction is raising questions whether the country will follow Denmark’s lead by introducing a CfD subsidy scheme for future offshore wind auctions. 

  • Germany’s latest offshore wind auction for the areas N-10.1 and N-10.2 for 2.5GW of capacity with a 1 August deadline received no bids. Germany did not offer any subsidies for the auction.
  • Similarly in Denmark, the energy ministry said in December it had not received any bids for the three offshore wind farms (North Sea I A1, A2 and A3) with a combined capacity of 3GW, which caused Denmark to briefly halt all ongoing onshore wind tenders as of the end of January.
  • In May, the Danish energy ministry announced to launch a 3GW offshore wind tender in autumn 2025, with the state using a two-sided CfD model, offering up to DKK 27.6bn (€3.7bn) in support and insuring up to DKK 55.2bn.
  • In Germany, the wider energy sector has been calling on the government to overhaul the offshore wind auction frameworks to introduce CfDs, even before the no-bid results, amid waning interest.
  • Most recently, Germany’s offshore wind lobby group BWO urged the government to change the auction design and to remove bottlenecks such as in port expansion and the modernisation of seaports.
  • “The federal government must finally pave the way for a reliable CfD system alongside long-term electricity supply contracts. CfDs lead to a reduction in electricity generation costs of up to 30 percent”, BWO managing director Stefan Thimm said.
  • However, Germany’s new coalition agreement does not state any plans for the introduction of subsidies for German offshore wind auctions. Instead, the agreement states that the government plans to enable the hybrid connection via cables and hydrogen pipelines from offshore wind parks as part of the country’s offshore wind law.
  • There is a possibility that German will consider the introduction of offshore wind subsidies after the government receives results on its energy market monitoring report that has been commissioned to determine the country’s future power demand as well as the state of the security of supply, grid expansion and renewable expansion.
  • German offshore wind capacity stood at 9.2GW at the end of June, with currently 1.9GW under construction, Bnetza data showed.
  • Germany targets 30GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. 

Historical bullets

BUNDS: HSBC Mark Yield Calls Higher, Look For Cheapening Vs. Swaps In '26

Jul-07 12:22

HSBC have raised their end-2025 10-Year Bund yield forecast to 2.45% (prev. 2.20%), and to 2.55% for end-2026 (prev. 2.00%).

  • While they do not expect the ECB to cut again, they do warn that risks to their call lie more in the dovish direction than the hawkish side.
  • Regarding swap spreads, they expect “less impact from QT next year, but Germany's bold plans for fiscal expansion could see an increase in Bund supply (although highlight the risks of a near-term underspend)”.
  • Meanwhile, they see “the "rotation trade" away from U.S. assets having less influence over Bund spreads next year. They were cheap before the 2 April U.S. tariff announcement so some of the richening this caused can be seen as a correction, which we do not expect to be sustained”.
  • Net, they “expect Bund-swap spreads to remain at current levels this year but start cheapening in 2026”.
  • They also highlight that these “factors, plus the possibility of a higher term premium due to greater inflation volatility, also drive our forecast for continued steepening of the 10-/30-Year slope”.

STIR: Repo Reference Rates Retreat

Jul-07 12:20
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.35% (-0.04), volume: $2.846T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32% (-0.05), volume: $1.140T
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.32% (-0.05), volume: $1.109T
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

SONIA OPTIONS: Call Fly Buyer

Jul-07 12:18

SFIQ5 96.20/96.30/96.40c fly, bought for 1 in 10k.