POWER: Germany August Power Edges Higher
The German August power base-load contract is edging higher with gains in the energy complex. German spot power is set to decline with forecasts for lower demand on Friday.
- Germany Base Power AUG 25 up 0% at 78.13 EUR/MWh
- Germany Power Cal 26 up 0.7% at 85.4 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.8% at 69.89 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas AUG 25 up 0.5% at 32.865 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has edged up from the lowest since early May of €32.55/MWh yesterday. Prices are under pressure from continued above normal storage injection rates although with support from the delayed return of Norway’s Troll field.
- EUAs are trending higher with gains in EU gas prices.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will fall below normal later this week until early August, after which temperatures will rise back above normal.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 20.6C on Friday, from 19.9C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 19.3C.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge up to 5.34GW during base load on Friday, from 4.2GW on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast at 21.33GW during peak load on Friday, from 19.96GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- German power demand is forecast to decline to 51.76GW on Friday, from 53.28GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 31.91GWh/h on Friday, down from 34.24GWh/h on Thursday, but revised up from 30.4GWh/h in the forecast 24h earlier, Reuters data showed.
- Germany’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at -106GWh as of 7 August, compared with -32GWh a day earlier, Bloomberg data showed.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Hammer Candle Highlights A Reversal
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 08:07 BST Jun 24
- SUP 1: 0.6454/6373 Intraday low / Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6309 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jun 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, the outlook remains bullish. The sharp reversal from Monday’s low reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. Yesterday’s gains also highlight a bullish price pattern - a hammer candle formation. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6552, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, yesterday’s low.
GILT TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
- RES 1: 93.21./93.68 High Jun 23 / 13
- PRICE: 93.11 @ Close Jun 23
- SUP 1: 92.41 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9
- SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8
A bullish condition in Gilt futures remains intact and recent weakness appears corrective. Monday’s strong gains reinforce the current bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. A break of this level is required to undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, sights are on 93.68, the Jun 13 high and bull trigger.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 93.02/93.14 range, should be close enough to flat.
