RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

The SNB has published their Q4 quarterly bulletin, including business cycle signals publication here. On balance, the publication is consistent with an SNB policy rate at 0% for the foreseeable future. Key excerpts below:

• "According to the talks with company representatives, growth momentum in the Swiss economy has increased slightly in the fourth quarter. The services sector and construction continue to record solid growth in turnover, and parts of manufacturing also report a certain upturn in what has until now been weak momentum."
• "Wage growth has weakened slightly. The companies visited expect average wage growth of 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.6% this year. "
• "For the next two quarters, companies expect purchase and sales prices to rise slightly. [...] On the sales side, companies are trying to pass on the pay rises and increases in some purchase prices to their customers. However, the scope for price adjustments, which are often made at the beginning of the year, is in many cases limited by the tight competitive situation."

For the full MNI BOE Preview click here

• Governor Bailey is almost unanimously expected to join the four dovish dissenters and deliver a Christmas BOE 25bp rate cut at tomorrow's meeting (expected unanimously by the sell side and priced over 23bp at the time of writing).
• The market will be looking for more nuance at this meeting so we look at our top 7 things to watch in the meeting (assuming we do get the expected cut; if we don’t then the market isn’t going to pay much attention to the details!).
• We also summarise over 20 sellside previews - a 5-4 vote split is expected by the majority but analysts are split over what happens after December.

OI data points to net long cover in the SONIA white & red futures packs as contracts ticked lower on Tuesday, presenting slightly cleaner positioning ahead of today’s soft CPI report, aiding today's dovish market reaction.

• Meanwhile, the greens and blues saw shorts added on net on Tuesday.
• Firmer-than-market-expected wage data drove much of Tuesday's market reaction.