RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Dec-17 14:33
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF and GFS models for the next seven days as of Wednesday afternoon.
- SpotRenewables and the German GFS model forecast similar wind generation levels on 20 December and 6 December. Meanwhile, SpotRenewables and the ECMWF models are tightly correlated on 18 December and also on 26 December.
- The largest deviation is noted when comparing the ECMWF model and SpotRenewables over 23-24 December at 14-17.5GW, respectively, with largest deviations between GFS and SpotRenewables on 24 December at 5.1GW.
Despite these differences, all three models forecast wind output to drop sharply from 18 December before rebounding on 21 December.
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US TSY FUTURES: December'25-March'26 Roll Update
Nov-17 14:28
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from December'25 to March'26 outlined below. Modest volumes with percentage complete currently in the single digits. "First Notice" date Friday, November 28. Current roll details:
- TUZ5/TUH6 appr 8,000 from -5.5 to -5.25, -5.5 last; 1% complete
- FVZ5/FVH6 appr 38,900 from -2.5 to -2.25, -2.25 last; 4% complete
- TYZ5/TYH6 appr 97,300 from -1.75 to 2.0, 1.75 last; 5% complete
- UXYZ5/UXYH6 under 200 from 5.25 to 5.5, 5.5 last; 1% complete
- USZ5/USH6 appr 17,600 from 10.5 to 12.5, 11.75 last; 2% complete
- WNZ5/WNH6 appr 2,700 from 10.0 to 10.25, 10.25 last; 1% complete
- Reminder, Dec'25 futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on December 19, 2s and 5s on December 31. Meanwhile, Dec'25 Tsy options will expire this Friday, November 21
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
Nov-17 14:26
SPX: 6,725.8 (-0.1%); DJIA: 47,093 (-0.1%/-54pts); NDX: 24,972.5 (-0.1%).
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Condor buyer
Nov-17 14:20
SFIH6 96.40/96.50/96.60/96.70c condor, bought for 3.25 in 3k.
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