RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

Dec-12 14:04

See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF and GFS models for the next seven days as of Friday afternoon.

  • SpotRenewables and the German GFS model forecast similar wind generation levels on 13 December and 16-19 December. Meanwhile, SpotRenewables and the ECMWF models produced similar wind estimates on 17 December, with remaining days indicating disparities above 1GW.
  • The largest deviation is noted when comparing the ECMWF model and SpotRenewables over 19-20 December at between 20.7-18.6GW, with large deviations between GFS and SpotRenewables on 14 December at 2GW.
  • Despite these differences, all three models forecast wind output to be on a general upward trend until 15 December before dropping over 16-17 December and climbing over the next two days. 

    image

Historical bullets

BTP: Block trade

Nov-12 13:51

BTP Block trade, suggest seller:

  • IKZ5 ~1.34k at 121.33.

SOFR OPTIONS: Latest Option Trades

Nov-12 13:46
  • SFRF6 96.50/96.68/96.81c fly, bought for 3 in 15k (5k done on Block).
  • SFRM6 96.25/96.12/96.00p ladder, bought for flat in 2.5k.
  • 0QU6 97.25/97.50cs, sold at 5.5 in 4k.

SNB: Unchanged Rhetoric From VP Antoine Martin

Nov-12 13:40
  • Worth monitoring some headlines from SNB VP Antoine Martin – taken from presentation slides which are accessible here.
  • In line with previous rhetoric so far: “Inflation seen rising slightly in next quarters”, re-upping the conditional inflation forecast from the September meeting.