RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

• Atlanta Fed business 1Y inflation expectations dipped back to an average 2.5% in May after the 2.8% in April was the highest since May 2023 (showing expected increases in unit costs).
• The relative levels chime more closely with levelling off in the increase in consumer expectations in the NY Fed survey for April as opposed to the sharper increases in consumer measures from the Conference Board (Apr) and U.Mich (May prelim).
• The quarterly survey saw the average firm’s own price inflation of 3.9% over the past twelve months, an acceleration from the 3.5% in the Feb results but apart from that still the lowest since the question started in late 2020.
• Average expectations for the next twelve months meanwhile accelerated further from 4.0% to 5.0% for the firmest since 4Q22. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has slightly downplayed the prospect of a House vote on the ‘Big Beautiful’ Reconciliation bill today, saying there is a “chance” of a vote today, amid signs hardline conservatives may be prepared to vote down the package over deficit concerns, per Julie Tsirkin at NBC.

• Tsirkin notes that a group of conservatives, including Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD), Rules Committee member Chip Roy (R-TX), and Keith Self (R-TX), are currently meeting with Johnson in his Capitol Hill office.
• Meanwhile, the Rules Committee hearing - that is supposed to be setting the rules for a final House vote on the bill - has entered its 10th hour without any sign of a ‘manager’s amendment’ package to formalise deals with conservatives and SALT Republicans to ease opposition to the bill.
• Laura Weiss at Punchbowl has revised details of the new offer to SALT Republicans here, noting that the plan is for “not less than $344B for SALT”.
• Reports from Capitol Hill suggest that if Johnson can get the bill discharged from the Rules Committee, he could press ahead with a House vote, despite the conservative opposition.
• Johnson used the same strategy in April to muscle the joint budget resolution through the House with an assist from President Donald Trump, who personally whipped individual votes. That outcome is possible this week if Johnson can convince conservatives that he - and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD)-  will explore more measures to reduce the deficit.  

The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP2.75bln of the 0.875% Jul-33 Green Gilt (ISIN: GB00BM8Z2S21) at its auction next Wednesday, May 28.