RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Mar-19 14:59
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts for this week.
- The largest deviation is seen from the start of next week with the SpotRenewables forecast suggesting wind output up to 31.91GW on 25 March, while Bloomberg’s ECMWF model suggests output at 8.6GW the same day.
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EURIBOR: Mix Of Net Short Setting And Net Long Cover Seen On Friday
Feb-17 14:54
OI data points to a mix of net short setting and net long cover in Euribor futures on Friday. Futures settled -0.5 to -3.0 ticks through the blues, partially due to prospects of a less-onerous-than-expected US reciprocal tariff regime (announced late Thursday).
- The largest net pack OI swing was seen in the reds (-14.3k), driven by ~18.5k of net long cover in the H6 contract.
- Meanwhile, there was 20.2k of indicative net long cover seen in the M5 contract.
| 14/02/2025 | 13/02/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 576,160 | 567,935 | +8,225 | Whites | -7,782 |
| ERM5 | 712,236 | 732,470 | -20,234 | Reds | -14,349 |
| ERU5 | 560,303 | 554,445 | +5,858 | Greens | -2,948 |
| ERZ5 | 622,006 | 623,637 | -1,631 | Blues | +3,916 |
| ERH6 | 408,117 | 426,620 | -18,503 | ||
| ERM6 | 342,190 | 340,644 | +1,546 | ||
| ERU6 | 264,633 | 266,324 | -1,691 | ||
| ERZ6 | 330,859 | 326,560 | +4,299 | ||
| ERH7 | 168,388 | 169,662 | -1,274 | ||
| ERM7 | 133,844 | 132,031 | +1,813 | ||
| ERU7 | 95,832 | 95,731 | +101 | ||
| ERZ7 | 117,781 | 121,369 | -3,588 | ||
| ERH8 | 59,824 | 59,421 | +403 | ||
| ERM8 | 46,633 | 45,587 | +1,046 | ||
| ERU8 | 33,805 | 32,037 | +1,768 | ||
| ERZ8 | 46,132 | 45,433 | +699 |
US: Senate Could Move First On Adopting Budget Resolution
Feb-17 14:44
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) could bring the Senate Republican budget resolution to the floor this week, gaining the upper hand on strategy while the House of Representatives is on recess for the week. If adopted, the resolution would put the Senate firmly on its preferred two-bill reconciliation strategy.
- The Senate resolution provides roughly USD$300 billion in new border and defence spending, including funding to complete the US-Mexico border wall, but defers President Donald Trump's tax agenda until later in the year - a move that could risk delaying legislation to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts until beyond the December 2025 sunset date for some provisions.
- Should Thune choose to begin procedural voting - likely starting Tuesday -, it would entail up to 50 hours of debate and a so-called 'vote-a-rama' on amendments that could drag on for hours over dozens of votes.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason (R-MO) have petitioned Trump to oppose the Senate plan, however, Politico notes: "Vice President JD Vance, White House policy chief Stephen Miller and budget chief Russ Vought [are] among those favoring the Senate’s preferred two-bill approach."
- Thune said in an interview on Friday: “The House and the Senate operate differently, clearly, and we have procedural issues we have to deal with in the Senate. But … these efforts are going to, at some point — they’re going to merge.”
CANADA DATA: Foreign Demand For GoCs Ended 2024 On The Same Strong Note
Feb-17 14:42
- Foreign investment in Canadian securities in Dec. increased by CAD14.4B led by debt securities. Foreigners bought CAD13.9B of Federal government bonds, the highest since April 2020, to held offset the first drawdown in Canadian corporation bonds since Oct 2023.
- Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to CAD3.8B from CAD17.6B in Nov. mainly due to debt securities.
- After two straight months of significant investments totalling CAD24.9B, Canadian investors sold CAD4.1B in US government bonds, the largest divestment since May 2023.
- In 2024, foreign investors bought 192.9B of Canadian securities led by record demand for federal government (+CAD100.3B) and corporate (+CAD78.9) bonds. Foreigners continued to sell equities for a second year in a row, CAD7.6B in 2024 mainly due to share retirements from acquisition activities after CAD48.3B in 2023.
