POWER: German Spot Power to Fall
The German spot power index is expected to fall with forecasts for higher wind output on Tuesday. German front-month power is pulling back with losses in EUAs and an upward revision in wind forecasts, weighed against forecasts suggesting temperatures to be colder for longer.
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.8% at 105.39 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 82.6 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.1% at 53.2 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 5.4% at -16.1192 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 (March) down 263.5% at -13.8192 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is back near previous close levels after an initial rally to the highest since Oct. 2023 at €54.8/MWh as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs. US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are pulling back on Monday following US President Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on several nations and warnings that he will impose similar tariffs on the EU. Downside is limited by forecasts for colder-for-longer weather and some gains in EU gas prices. The next EU ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 10.05GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 3.21GW on Monday. German wind generation forecasts for this week have been revised higher from Friday’s forecasts according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal on most days until at least 18 February.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 2C on Tuesday, up from 0.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 3.3C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 60.19GW on Tuesday, up from 59.16GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 44.7GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 50.96GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher from Friday’s forecasts to end at -172GWh on 17 February.
- RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath 4 lignite plant had an unplanned outage late on 1 February that is scheduled until Tuesday morning.
- Uniper’s 1.05GW Datten 4 coal-fired plant is still scheduled to return on Wednesday, after a fire caused the plant to halt in October.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
