POWER: German Spot Maintains Discount to France
Jan-02 12:04
The German and French spot power both increased for Saturday’s delivery, with France remaining at premium to the German market as firm wind output in Germany – albeit dropping on the day – kept costs slightly lower than the French equivalent.
- The German spot power index rose to €88.67/MWh, compared with to €54.69/MWh in the previous session.
- The German day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot cleared at €95.86/MWh, compared with €72.60/MWh the day before.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at -0.1C on Saturday, down from 1.1C on Friday and below the seasonal average of 3.2C.
- German wind output is forecast at 30.19GW during base load on Saturday, down from 49.85GW on Friday.
- German rescom gas demand is forecast at 205.39mcm/d on Saturday, up from 196.24mcm/d on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Power demand in Germany has been revised lower over 3-7 January by as much as 1.3GW. Demand is forecast at 49.16GW on Saturday, down from 54.69GW on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Residual load in Germany is estimated at 20.63GWh/h, up from 3.89GWh/h on Friday and revised up by 1.2GWh/h on the day.
- The French spot power index cleared at €89.00/MWh, compared with €68.04/MWh the day before.
- The French day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €95.97/MWh, compared with at €87.55/MWh in the previous session.
- French nuclear availability is at 90% on Friday, down from 91% on Wednesday, data from RTE show, cited by Bloomberg.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast at 0.3C on Saturday, down from 1.8C on Friday and below the seasonal normal of 4.7C.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 6.68GW during base load on Saturday, from 7.64GW on Friday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in France has been revised lower over 3- 6 January by as much as 3.4GW. Demand will be at 65.17GW on Saturday, down from 70.00GW on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- In the Benelux, the Belgian spot power index settled at €88.72/MWh, compared with at €72.15/MWh the previous day. The Dutch spot power index cleared at €88.59/MWh, compared with €63.20/MWh the previous session.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Bunds Still Present
Dec-03 12:03
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain soft following a strong sell-off on Monday. The move down resulted in a break of key short-term support at 128.37, the Nov 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 17 and sets the scene for an extension towards 127.88, the Sep 28 low and the next important support. MA studies have recently crossed to highlight a bear-mode condition. Key short-term resistance is at 129.21, the Nov 26 high. Initial resistance is at 128.72, the Nov 24 low.
- A bullish condition in Gilt futures remains intact following recent gains and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. A gap in the daily chart has been filled and initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead refocus attention on the first important support at 90.53, the Nov 26 low.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.4% SA THRU NOV 28 WK
Dec-03 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.4% SA THRU NOV 28 WK
OPTIONS: Expiries for Dec03 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Dec-03 11:54
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E611mln), $1.1625(E697mln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8885(E505mln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5730(N$622mln)
