SWAPS: German Long End Spreads Continue To Soften
Dec-05 08:56
Front end outperformance noted in German swap spreads, with long end spreads remaining under pressure.
- Rolls in futures provide further skew in ASWs with DU wider and the long end of the spread curve trading lower.
- Looking ahead to today’s events, Commerzbank note that “political focus will be on Germany where a long-awaited vote on the pension system is due in the Bundestag around noon. In essence, the vote is about the pace of pension increases, which require increased financing from the core budget”… “Despite the controversial discussions and differing opinions withing the CDU, the vote now seems more likely to pass as the Left party intends to abstain from voting”.
- However, they warn that “the coalition will probably only experience noticeable relief if there is a Chancellor's majority in the vote (at least 316 'yes' votes from the coalition), and the package would do little to alleviate the long-term pressure on the pension system”.
- This leads them to suggest that the German long end swap spread weakness may extend.
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MNI: GERMANY OCT FINAL SERV PMI 54.6 (54.5 FLASH, 51.5 SEP)
Nov-05 08:55
- MNI: GERMANY OCT FINAL SERV PMI 54.6 (54.5 FLASH, 51.5 SEP)
ITALY DATA: New Business Inflows Rise To 1.5 Year High In October Services PMI
Nov-05 08:51
Italy (as Spain earlier) came in stronger than expected at 54.0 (53.0 cons; 52.5 prior). Growth in new work was a key driver, supported by a fresh rise in exports. Key highlights below:
- "Both output and new business increased at sharp and accelerated paces. Notably, October saw an end to the trend of decline in exports, with the volume new business from abroad up slightly on the month."
- On the higher exports: "Some panellists noted higher sales from European customers, but there were also reports of persistent international uncertainty."
- "Services firms retained a positive outlook when asked about their expectations for activity for the year ahead. Panellists are forecasting an improvement in market conditions and expect new customer wins and increased service offerings to be supportive of growth. The level of confidence ticked down from September and remained subdued by historical standards, however"
MNI: FRANCE OCT FINAL SERV PMI 48.0 (47.1 FLASH, 48.5 SEP)
Nov-05 08:50
- MNI: FRANCE OCT FINAL SERV PMI 48.0 (47.1 FLASH, 48.5 SEP)
