POWER: German Front-Week Rallies on Lower Wind
The German front-week power base-load contract is rebounding on Friday, with forecasts suggesting a sharp decline in wind output late next week. German spot power prices are expected to come under pressure for this weekend with strong wind output. Liquidity may be reduced due to Unity Day holiday.
- Germany Base Power NOV 25 down 0.1% at 94.65 EUR/MWh
- Germany Power Cal 26 down 0.1% at 85.68 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power Week 2 up 22.9% at 98 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.3% at 77.64 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas NOV 25 down 1.3% at 31.06 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has been bouncing within a €1/MWh range since falling to a low of €30.735/MWh on Oct. 1, with returning pipeline supplies set against limited storage injections.
- EUAs are edging higher, shrugging off losses in EU gas prices, with a downward revision in CWE wind output supporting expectations for fossil fuel generation from the second half of next week.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures to rise above normal next week, before dropping below the average from late next week.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at 13.1C on Saturday and at 11.5C on Sunday, from 10.9C on Friday.
- German wind output is forecast at 44.87GW during base load on Saturday and at 46.1GW on Sunday, up from 18.28GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast at 6.64GW during peak load on Saturday and at 10.16GW on Sunday, from 19.12GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- German wind output has been revised up for the next four days and sharply revised down for late next week. Output is forecast at 5.65GW to 46.1GW during base load over 4-10 October.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at -4.92GWh/h on Saturday and at -11.53GWh/h on Sunday, down from 17.82GWh/h on Friday.
- Residual is forecast to average 35.68GWh/h next week, Reuters data showed.
- German gas demand for residential and commercial consumers is forecast at 74.2mcm/d on Saturday and at 68.1mcm/d on Sunday, from 85mcm/d on Friday according to Bloomberg.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 44.34GW on Saturday and at 44.71GW on Sunday, down from 46.56GW on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Germany’s hydro balance forecast has edged up to end at 633GWh on 17 October, from 613GWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
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GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14
- RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15
- RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 90.16/90.84 High Sep 2 / High Aug 28 / 29
- PRICE: 89.76 @ Close Sep 2
- SUP 1: 89.60 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 89.46 1.382 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and a fresh cycle low again on Tuesday reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 89.46 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.
MNI: TURKEY AUG CPI +2.04% M/M
- MNI: TURKEY AUG CPI +2.04% M/M
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 89.73/89.76.
