POWER: German, French Spot Power Indices Rise
Sep-24 10:52
The German and French spot power indices increased for Thursday’s delivery with sharper gains in the French market amid lower wind generation and higher demand. The German market edged up despite forecasts for lower residual load, with cooler weather driving up heating demand.
- The German day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot settled at €81.81/MWh, compared with €79.19/MWh in the previous session.
- The German peak-load spot index settled at €74.78/MWh, compared with €68.88/MWh the day before.
- German wind output is forecast to rise to 27.46GW during base load on Thursday, from 21.73GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 12.08GW during peak load on Thursday, down from 15.38GW on Wednesday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 16.83GWh/h on Thursday, down from 23.04GWh/h on Wednesday, and revised up from 15.17GWh/h 24h earlier.
- German gas demand for residential and commercial users is forecast at 63.3mcm/d on Thursday, up from 57.5mcm/d on Wednesday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast at 56.27GW on Thursday, up from 55.56GW on Wednesday.
- The French day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot settled at €62.78/MWh, compared with €31.59/MWh in the previous session.
- The French peak-load spot index settled at €55.62/MWh, compared with €31.20/MWh the day before.
- French nuclear availability rose to 77% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 76% on Tuesday.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 48.85GWh/h on Thursday, up from 48.2GWh/h on Wednesday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 2.49GW during base load on Thursday, down from 4.96GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 6.16GW during peak load on Thursday, up from 4.66GW on Wednesday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 39.94GWh/h on Thursday, up from 37.72GWh/h on Wednesday.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 47.26GW on Thursday, up from 46.35GW on Wednesday.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-25 10:47
- In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1596. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- Strong gains on Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.
US TSY FUTURES: September'25-December'25 Roll Update - Massive Volume
Aug-25 10:37
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete jumped to over a third of outstanding Sep'25 open interest after Friday's massive volume. "First Notice" date next week Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 91,400 from -8.75 to -8.5, -8.75 last; 41% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 69,500 from -5.25 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 39% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 198,500 from -1.25 to -1.0, -1.25 last; 38% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 138,800 from -0.5 to +0.0, -0.5 last; 37% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 25,400 from 12.5 to 13.0, 12.75 last; 41% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 48,000 from 7.5 to 8.0, 7.75 last; 41% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-25 10:37
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-01+ @ 11:26 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 111-13 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support around the 50-day EMA, at 111-13. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, sights are on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
