POWER: German, French Spot Power Indices Diverge

Nov-28 12:00

The German spot power index increased for Saturday’s delivery with easing wind output, despite lower demand. The French spot index declined on higher wind and lower demand.

  • The German spot power index settled at €90.19/MWh for Saturday’s delivery, from €85.05/MWh for Friday.
  • The German day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €96.02/MWh, compared with €99.76/MWh in the previous session.
  • German wind output is forecast at 20.63GW during base load on Saturday and at 21.72GW on Sunday, from 26.36GW on Friday.
  • German gas demand for residential and commercial consumers is forecast at 128.9mcm/d on Saturday and at 138.9mcm/d on Sunday, from 144.2mcm/d on Friday.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at 51.88GW on Saturday and at 49.87GW on Sunday, from 60.56GW on Friday.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast at 30.68GWh/h on Saturday and at 25.17GWh/h on Sunday, from 33.65GWh/h on Friday.
  • The French spot power index cleared at €73.91/MWh for Saturday’s delivery, compared with €78.10/MWh the day before.
  • The French day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €68.63/MWh, down from €86.22/MWh the previous session.
  • French nuclear availability was stable at 84% of capacity as of Friday morning.
  • French nuclear availability is forecast at 50.05GWh/h on Saturday and at 49.88GWh/h on Sunday, from 50.29GWh/h on Friday.
  • Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast at 10.5C on Saturday and at 6.5C on Sunday, from 9.1C on Friday, with all days above the seasonal average.
  • Wind output in France is forecast at 9GW during base load on Saturday and at 5.29GW on Sunday, from 7.01GW on Friday.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at 57.05GW on Saturday and at 55.91GW on Sunday, from 63.46GW on Friday.
  • Residual load in France is forecast at 47GWh/h on Saturday and at 49.6GWh/h on Sunday, from 55.22GWh/h on Friday.

Historical bullets

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above The 50-Day EMA For Now

Oct-29 11:40
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Tuesday, extending the bear cycle that started Oct 20. Note that the trend has recently been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement is allowing this condition to unwind. Attention is on the next key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3842.8. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
  • Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $61.10 The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Low Oct 20.

SONIA OPTIONS: Call Condor buyer

Oct-29 11:37

SFIH6 96.70/96.75/96.80/96.85c condor, bought for half in 7.5k.

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In GBPUSD Remains Present

Oct-29 11:27
  • In FX, support to watch in EURUSD is 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a recent bullish signal and this would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. A break would open 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, and clearance of 1.1516 would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Price needs to trade above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to strengthen a bull theme.
  • A bear threat in GBPUSD remains present and this week’s sell-off strengthens this theme. The pair has breached 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17 and sights are on 1.3220 next (pierced), a 0.764 projection of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing. The break lower has also exposed key support at 1.3142, Aug 1 low. Initial resistance is 1.3377, the 20-day EMA.
  • The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Attention is on key resistance at 153.27, the Oct 10 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. This would open 153.82, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. First important support to watch lies at 151.19, the 20-day EMA.