POWER: German, French Spot Power Indices Diverge
Jul-09 10:51
The German and French spot power indices diverged with France increasing and Germany edging down, despite an increase in residual load on the day.
- The German spot power index edged down to €90.41/MWh, compared with €91.80/MWh the previous session.
- The peak-load index decreased to €75.03/MWh, compared with €78.42/MWh the day before.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast at 6.44GW during base load on Thursday, down from 11.49GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 26.08GW during peak load on Thursday, from 22.43GW on Wednesday.
- German power demand is forecast at 53.94GW on Thursday, down from 54.74GW on Wednesday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 30.61GWh/h on Thursday, up from 27.62GWh/h on Wednesday and revised up from 28.8GWh/h forecasted 24h earlier.
- The French spot power index rose to €67.62/MWh, compared with €46.06/MWh the day before.
- The French peak-load spot index increased to €47.46/MWh, compared with €30.92/MWh in the previous session.
- French nuclear availability edged up to 75% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 74% on Tuesday.
- French nuclear reactor capacity is forecast at 47.09GWh/h on Thursday, from 46.12GWh/h on Wednesday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 2.64GW during base load on Thursday, compared with 1.93GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 12.88GW during peak load on Thursday, compared with 12.79GW on Wednesday.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 43.72GW on Thursday, from 45.16GW on Wednesday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 35.55GWh/h on Thursday, down from 36.7GWh/h on Wednesday.
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STIR: Net Short Setting Dominated In Front End Of SOFR Strip On Friday
Jun-09 10:46
OI data points to net short setting dominating in 7 of the front 8 SOFR futures on Friday, before positioning swings became a little more balanced between net short setting and long cover further out the strip
- A reminder that the NFP data and news of an impending Sino-U.S. meeting on trade maters drove much of the hawkish repricing seen in the U.S. short end ahead of the weekend. SFRZ5 got within 2.5bp of its May lows.
| 06-Jun-25 | 05-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,067,105 | 1,069,487 | -2,382 | Whites | +65,171 |
SFRM5 | 1,421,510 | 1,407,171 | +14,339 | Reds | +101,133 |
SFRU5 | 1,149,871 | 1,129,921 | +19,950 | Greens | -11,917 |
SFRZ5 | 1,136,580 | 1,103,316 | +33,264 | Blues | +8,866 |
SFRH6 | 836,398 | 805,850 | +30,548 |
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SFRM6 | 830,572 | 793,531 | +37,041 |
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SFRU6 | 748,572 | 726,496 | +22,076 |
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SFRZ6 | 862,184 | 850,716 | +11,468 |
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SFRH7 | 679,168 | 681,005 | -1,837 |
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SFRM7 | 587,139 | 592,542 | -5,403 |
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SFRU7 | 417,480 | 414,504 | +2,976 |
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SFRZ7 | 408,007 | 415,660 | -7,653 |
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SFRH8 | 300,789 | 293,564 | +7,225 |
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SFRM8 | 215,815 | 220,211 | -4,396 |
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SFRU8 | 169,642 | 164,931 | +4,711 |
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SFRZ8 | 172,287 | 170,961 | +1,326 |
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Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
US TSYS: Modestly Firmer On Low Volumes, US-China Trade Talks Continue
Jun-09 10:46
- Treasuries are modestly firmer after the weekend, holding the majority Friday’s sell-off on a somewhat solid payrolls report that defied a dovish build-up to the release from other downside surprises elsewhere.
- The US and China are set to resume trade talks in London today, focusing on rare earth minerals and advanced technology after last week’s Trump-Xi call. Just the fact that call had gone ahead saw a fixed income sell-off last week.
- As for potential headline timings, Trump participates in an Invest America Roundtable at 1400ET with the White House press pool.
- Cash yields are 2-3bp lower on the day. That includes 10Y yields at 4.4817% having eased back from Friday’s latest clearance of 4.50% with a high of 4.5116%.
- Curves are a little off Friday’s post-payrolls flats, with 2s10s at 47.6bp (+0.3bp) and 5s30s at 85.8bp (+0.7bp).
- TYU5 trades at 110-03 (+ 06) having slowly climbed a little further off Friday’s 109-28, with low cumulative volumes of 250k.
- A bearish threat is present, with support seen at 109-26 (May 29 low) before the bear trigger at 109-12+ (May 22 low). Resistance meanwhile is seen at 110-20+ (50-day EMA) with a key short-term level at 111-14+ (Jun 5 high & 61.8% of May 1-22 downleg) required to be cleared for a more bullish trajectory.
- Data: Wholesale inventories/sales Apr F/Apr (1000ET), NY Fed inflation expectations May (1100ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Needle Points South
Jun-09 10:36
- In FX, EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach of 1.1419, the May 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the trend and has opened 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1216, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is at 1.1334, the 20-day EMA.
- Trend signals in GBPUSD are unchanged and remain bullish. Last week’s fresh cycle high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.3681 next, the 1.500 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3453, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3288.
- Recent gains in USDJPY are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. Attention is on the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. Moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high.
