POWER: German, French Spot Power Indices Diverge
The German and French spot power indices diverged with higher renewables output weighing on the German market, while the French market edged up slightly amid lower wind output and slightly higher demand, weighed against higher nuclear availability and solar output.
- The German spot power index decreased to €90.01/MWh, compared with €99.97/MWh in the previous session.
- The peak-load index declined €77.15/MWh, compared with €89.32/MWh the day before.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast at 13.66GW during base load on Tuesday, from up from 10.45GW on Monday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge up to 19.24Gw during peak load on Tuesday, from 18.87GW a day earlier.
- German power demand is forecast at 54.85GW on Tuesday, up from 52.59GW on Monday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 23.71GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 27.36GWh/h on Monday and revised up from 21.19GWh/h forecasted 24h earlier.
- The French spot power index edged up to €37.50/MWh, compared with €36.78/MWh the day before.
- The French peak-load spot index fell to €16.91/MWh, compared with €26.44/MWh in the previous session.
- French nuclear availability increased to 74% of capacity as of Monday morning, from 72% on Friday.
- French nuclear reactor capacity is forecast at 45.78GWh/h on Tuesday, up from 44.5GWh/h on Monday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 5.4GW during base load on Tuesday, down from 7.32GW on Monday. Solar PV output is forecast at 11.05GW during peak load on Tuesday, up from 8.02GW on Monday.
- Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 45.49GW on Tuesday, from 45.05GW on Monday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 33.43GWh/h on Tuesday, from 31.48GWh/h on Monday.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.19 @ 15:53 GMT Jun 06
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: June 2025
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- May’s refunding round saw guidance as well as coupon sizes for the current quarter unchanged.
- The August round (Jul 28-30) could prove more compelling, reflecting both pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve as well as a shifting fiscal outlook amid tariff revenues contrasted with impending tax cuts (not to mention the likelihood of approaching the debt limit at around that time if it’s not lifted).
- Future Coupon Upsizing: We’ve seen some expectations that Treasury could lean against some of those trends in the August refunding, with potential signals if not immediate action on adjusting buybacks or even reducing issuance duration in order to reduce pressure on the long end. MNI’s current expectation is that coupon sizes will only be increased in early 2026. We will update in our next Deep Dive at end-June, with our full refunding preview coming in late July.
- Upcoming issuance: June is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $23B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $366B. Sales for the month start in the coming week, on Tuesday June 10 with $58B of 3Y Note, Wednesday June 11 with $39B of 10Y Note, and Thursday June 12 with $22B of 30Y Bond.
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US FISCAL: Extraordinary Treasury Measures Tick Up As Cash Depletes
Treasury had $84B in "extraordinary measures" available to keep the government financed as of June 4 per a release Friday. That is up from $68B a week earlier though Treasury has exhausted three-quarters of the total initially available ($362B) when the debt limit impasse began in January.
- Combined with a pullback in Treasury cash ($376B), the total resources available to avert an "x-date" in the summer are down to a total $460B, the lowest since April 10 before the annual tax take accelerated.
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