POWER: German February Power Pulls Back After Rally
German February power is pulling back after Wednesday’s rally to the highest since late November. Losses in the energy complex and forecasts for slightly milder weather has weighed on the contract today.
- Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.4% at 123.6 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 82.77 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 25 down 0.4% at 50.95 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 19.2% at 5.3849 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month falls back from the highest since Oct. 2023 at €51.5/MWh yesterday as capacity reductions at Norway could ease in the coming days but with risk to storage withdrawals from cooler weather in the first week of February.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are trending lower with losses in EU gas prices and a slight upward revision in temperature forecasts.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline to 12.45GW on Friday, down from 13.16GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables. Wind output in Germany is forecast to remain low with output expected to pick from the end of next week.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures have been slightly revised up with mean temperatures near normal at the end of the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to decline to 2.7C on Friday, down from 5.9C on Thursday and below the seasonal average of 3.1C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 60.25GW, down from 60.51GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to edge higher to 43.69GWh/h on Friday. Up from 43.6GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised lower on the day to end at -152GWh on 13 February, compared with 21GWh forecasted a day earlier.
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SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4367 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4277/4103 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
- SUP 4: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.42779, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening call, 92.25.
- Also regarding the timing for the SETT price window, this should happen at 12:13-12:15 (GMT) for Futures and Options.
