EU-RUSSIA: German Chancellor Calls Out Slovakian PM Over Sanctions Veto
Speaking at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, German Chancellor Freidrich Merz calls out Slovakian PM Robert Fico over his gov'ts continued veto against an 18th round of sanctions against Russia. Merz says “I urgently ask Slovakia and its Prime Minister to give up the resistance and to make the way free for package number 18.” Slovakia's opposition is not to the content of 18th package of sanctions, but instead to the EU's plan to phase out the use of Russian fossil fuels.
- The decision on the latter can be taken by a qualified majority, meaning Slovakia cannot block it alone. However, Bratislava has resolved to hold the latest sanctions hostage, as these require a unanimous vote in the European Council.
- It is rare for the leader of a member state to single out another head of gov't in public on such an issue, but Merz's comments come as a clear sign of increasing irritation among Ukraine's allies in the Union. At present, it seems this will be limited to verbal pressure, rather than trying to exert more forceful measures that could see Slovakia back the sanctions.
- EU ambassadors meet on 11 July, with efforts to reach an agreement that would allow for foreign ministers to deliver the final sign off next week.
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FINLAND AUCTION RESULTS: 1.50% Sep-32 RFGB / 0.50% Apr-43 RFGB
| 1.50% Sep-32 RFGB | 0.50% Apr-43 RFGB | |
| ISIN | FI4000523238 | FI4000517677 |
| Amount | E733mln | E758mln |
| Previous | E722mln | E666mln |
| Avg yield | 2.677% | 3.365% |
| Previous | 2.702% | 2.510% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.53x | 1.63x |
| Previous | 1.59x | 1.38x |
| Avg Price | 92.320 | 62.030 |
| Pre-auction mid | 92.075 | 61.686 |
| Prev avg price | 92.110 | 67.700 |
| Prev mid-price | 91.901 | 67.660 |
| Previous date | 20-May-25 | 15-Jun-22 |
US TSY FUTURES: Short Cover Seemed To Dominate On Monday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU, UXY & WN) and short cover (FV, TY & US) in Tsy futures as the contracts ticked higher on Monday.
- Net short cover provided the more meaningful impulse in curve-wide terms.
| 09-Jun-25 | 06-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,956,555 | 3,919,482 | +37,073 | +1,463,769 |
FV | 6,782,892 | 6,828,544 | -45,652 | -1,989,750 |
TY | 4,773,364 | 4,812,773 | -39,409 | -2,604,935 |
UXY | 2,300,994 | 2,293,709 | +7,285 | +634,159 |
US | 1,722,226 | 1,731,668 | -9,442 | -1,295,726 |
WN | 1,889,366 | 1,887,856 | +1,510 | +274,246 |
|
| Total | -48,635 | -3,518,237 |
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-19+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 110-20 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 110-10 @ 11:13 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: 109-26 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
The recent reversal lower in Treasury futures, undermines the current bullish theme. An extension down would expose support at 109-26, the May 29 low, where a break would open key support and the bear trigger, at 109-12+, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish.
