EMISSIONS: German Carbon Permit Prices Edges Lower
The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared slightly lower at €67.25/ton CO2e, compared with €67.30/ton CO2e in the previous auction according to EEX.
- The cover ratio stood at 1.99, compared with 1.79 in the previous auction and well above the five-year average.
- The mean price stood at €69.10/ton CO2e and the median price at €67.09/ton CO2e.
- There was a total of 25 bids with 19 successful bids.
- This was the second to last German EUAs auction for this year.
- EU ETS Dec24 allowances have recouped some earlier losses to trade rangebound on the day, despite losses in EU gas prices. EUAs are currently tracking a 1.5% weekly net decline.
- EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 67.28 EUR/MT
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MNI: EUROZONE SEP PPI -0.6% M/M, -3.4% Y/Y
- MNI: EUROZONE SEP PPI -0.6% M/M, -3.4% Y/Y
EUROZONE DATA: PPI In-Line With Consensus, Driven by Energy
Eurozone PPI in September printed in-line with consensus at -3.4% Y/Y (vs -2.3% prior) and -0.6% M/M (vs 0.6% prior). This is the seventeenth consecutive month of deflation. On a monthly basis this is non-seasonally adjusted data but it is still worth noting this was the first negative reading since May 2024.
- The in-line reading was driven by energy producer prices falling more rapidly by 11.6% Y/Y (vs -7.8% in August), the lowest reading since May 2024. This is partly due to a 1.9%M/M fall, but also partly driven by base effects.
- Capital goods prices softened to 1.3% Y/Y (vs 1.5% prior).
- Durable and non-durable consumer goods producer prices edged up to 0.5% Y/Y (vs 0.3% prior) and 1.5% Y/Y (vs 1.1% in August).
- Intermediate goods remain in deflation, though the rate of decline softened to -0.7% Y/Y from -0.9% in August. This is the highest Y/Y growth since Spring 2023.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Reverse This Week's Earlier Gains, Bearish Theme Intact
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would instead refocus attention on the key S/T resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $72.67, the Nov 5 high. The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next. Price has breached support around the 20-day EMA. An extension lower would signal scope for a deeper correction, towards 2642.7, the 50-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $1.6 or -2.22% at $70.38
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.19% at $2.674
- Gold spot down $20.45 or -0.75% at $2723.88
- Copper down $11.8 or -2.64% at $435.9
- Silver down $0.4 or -1.23% at $32.27
- Platinum down $13.05 or -1.3% at $988.57
