EUROPEAN FISCAL: German Budget 2027 Key Figures

• US rates are mildly firmer from Friday’s close as higher oil prices (WTI holding push above $100/bbl) appear to be seen increasingly seen in conjunction with downside growth risks per Friday's cross-asset price action. That's despite equity futures lifting notably off overnight lows.
• FF cumulative hikes from 3.64% effective: 1bp Apr, 2bp Jun, 2bp Jul, 5bp Sep, 6bp Oct and 4.5bp Dec.
• SOFR futures are up to 2.5 ticks firmer in 2027 contracts whilst the terminal implied yield at 3.48% (SFRZ7, -2.5bp) edges back below 3.50% after setting fresh highs since Mar 2025 last week.
• Today sees Fedspeak from two senior FOMC members, with Powell updating after the FOMC press conference less than two weeks ago and Williams with his first comments since Mar 3
  • 1030ET - Fed Chair Powell (voter) in a moderated discussion at Harvard Principles of Economics Class (Q&A with moderator and audience). One of the surprises from the FOMC presser was that he addressed his future at the Fed after his Chairmanship is done in May, a subject he has been reluctant to speak about previously. He said he is prepared to continue to serve as Chair until his replacement (Kevin Warsh) is confirmed by the Senate (serving as Chair “pro tem” if his successor hasn’t yet been confirmed), and that he has “no intention of leaving the Board until the [Department of Justice] investigation [into the Fed] is well and truly over, with transparency and finality.” The bigger surprise was that “on the question of whether I will serve as a Governor after my term ends and the investigation is over, I have not made that decision yet.”
  • 1600ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter, leaning dove) speaks on the economy (text and Q&A, incl media availability). His Mar 3 speech reinforced that he is a dovish-leaning FOMC member, seeming to remain of the view that inflation is headed back to target - allowing for further rate cuts so that policy doesn't "inadvertently" become more restrictive. On the impact of the Middle East conflict on monetary policy: "We'll have to see how persistent this is and how long it is. It is early days to make the broader assessment”. 

• RES 4: 112-07   High Mar 18 
• RES 3: 111-29   50-day EMA
• RES 2: 111-12+ 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 111-01+ High Mar 25
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-13+ @ 11:18 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 109-24   Low Mar 27
• SUP 2: 109-22+ 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 3: 109-12   2.000 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 109-01+ 2.236 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

A bear cycle in Treasuries remains intact and recent short-term gains have been corrective. Friday’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens 109-22+ next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 111-12+, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and allow the oversold condition to unwind.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 03/30 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (0.2, 1.5)
• 03/30 1030 Fed Chairman Powell moderated discussion, Harvard
• 03/30 1130 US Tsy $89B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
• 03/30 1600 NY Fed Williams on economy
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI