AUDUSD TECHS: Friday Weakness Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6546 High June 11
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 16:36 BST Jun 13
- SUP 1: 0.6457/6421 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, and this week’s fresh cycle reinforces current conditions. Key support lies at 0.6421, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Today’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective.
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Lower Rate Cut Hedging
SOFR & Treasury options look two-way/paired as underlying futures continued to gradually extend lows after the bell. Projected rate cut pricing steady in the near term while longer dates retreat vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 steady at -2.1bp, Jul'25 steady at -9.8bp, Sep'25 at -22.8bp (-24.7bp), Oct'25 at -34.8bp (-37.3bp), Dec'25 at -49.6bp (-52.9bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.62/97.12 call spds, 1.62 ref 95.905
- +5,000 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors, 0.75 ref 95.905
- +30,000 SFRZ5 95.62/96.00 put spds vs. 0QZ5 95.87/96.25 put spds, 1.75-2.0 db bear curve flattener
- +20,000 SFRU5 97.50 calls, 1.5
- -4,000 2QM5 96.12/96.37 put spds, 5.5 ref 96.495
- Block, 10,000 SFRM6 96.37/98.25 call spds, 42.0 vs. 96.505/0.42%
- 5,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spd, 2.0 Sep over
- +5,000 SFRN5 95.50/95.62/95.68/95.81 put condors, 3.0 ref 95.93
- -4,000 SFRZ5 95.75/96.00 put spds, 9
- 3,000 SFRV5 95.62/95.81/95.87 put trees ref 96.205
- Block, 2,500 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 put condors, 0.25 ref 95.705
- -4,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.75 call spds, 4.5 ref 95.94
- 4,000 OQK5 96.62/96.87 2x1 put spds ref 96.53
- Treasury Options:
- 4,500 TUN5 103.75/104 2x3 call spds, 1.5 net ref 103-15.5
- 3,000 TYN5 108/108.5 put spds 5 ref 110-02.5
- +5,000 TYU5 133 calls, 33 ref 110-00 to -00.5
- +1,000 TYM5 110.25/110.75/111.25 2x3x1 call flys, 16
- -2,000 TYM5 110.25 straddles, 53
- -7,500 TYM5 109.5 puts, 11
- 4,200 FVM5 108.75 calls, 2 last
- 3,200 FVM5 107.5 puts, 18 last
- -1,250 FVM5 107.5/107.75/108.25 broken put flys, 15 vs. 107-19.5/0.05%
- +1,000 FVM5 108.25/108.75 call spds, 3.5
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Tech Heavy Nasdaq Outperforms
- Stocks remain near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed in late Wednesday trade, tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming as semiconductor makers led gainers for the second consecutive session.
- Stocks have bounced off recent Wednesday session lows after Pres Trump "signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion," according to a fact sheet issued by the White House.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 68.36 points (-0.16%) at 42070.86, S&P E-Minis up 4.25 points (0.07%) at 5908.75, the Nasdaq up 103.6 points (0.5%) at 19113.34.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to outperform in late trade, leading gainers included: Super Micro Computer +17.51%, Advanced Micro Devices +4.31%, NVIDIA +3.92%, Enphase Energy +5.71% and Dell Technologies +2.72%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares continued to support the Communication Services sector: Alphabet +3.4%, Take-Two Interactive Software +1.51%, Match Group +2.05% and Meta +0.66%.
- On the flipside, Health Care and Utilities continued to underperform, pharmaceuticals weighing on the former: Bio-Techne -6.38%, Revvity -5.09%, Moderna -4.96% and AbbVie -4.76%.
- Shares weighing on the Utility sector included: Eversource Energy -2.45%, Exelon -1.73%, WEC Energy Group -1.37%, Consolidated Edison -1.38% and Constellation Energy -1.62%.
EURJPY TECHS: Rally Fails to Hold
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.10/67 High Nov 6 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 165.43 High Nov 8 2024
- PRICE: 164.06 @ 15:57 GMT May 14
- SUP 1: 163.00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 162.10/161.60 50-day EMA / Low May 6
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
Having strengthened on Tuesday, EURJPY reversed into the Wednesday close, but is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest climb paves the way for a move towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 162.10, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.
