STIR: Fresh Downside In Euribor Futures On Heavy Volumes

Dec-05 14:51

Fresh downside across the Euribor strip on heavy volumes. No obvious headline trigger for the renewed front-end weakness, which looks to be a continuation of the modest hawkish repricing seen through the last two sessions.

  • Note that these latest US/China headlines lack substance, and ECB’s Villeroy veered slightly on the dovish side (somewhat as expected given his stance over the past few months).
  • ERZ6 briefly registers a multi-month low of 97.935, before moving back to 97.940 at typing. Over 35k lots have gone through in Z6 over the last 15 minutes alone.
  • Schatz futures also getting dragged lower by STIRs, now -3 ticks at 106.865 and narrowing the gap to support at 106.84 (equates to 2.10% yield).

Historical bullets

US TSY OPTIONS: Large Pre-PMI Data Flow:

Nov-05 14:51
  • Block, -13,800 TYZ5 112.5 straddles, 52 ref 112-19.5
  • +47,000 TYZ5 112 puts, 11 last, total volume over 57.2k
  • -25,000 TYZ5 112.5 puts, 22 last at 27

US TSYS: Post-PMI Data React

Nov-05 14:46
  • Treasuries extend lows after lower than expected S&P Global US Services/Composite PMIs.
  • Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades -6.5 at 112-18.5, 10Y yield 4.1181% (+.0330), curves bear steeper (2s10s +1.644 at 52.373; 5s30s +1.571 at 98.280).
  • Next up: ISM Services at 1000ET.

MNI: US OCT FINAL SERV PMI 54.8 (55.2 FLASH, 54.2 SEP)

Nov-05 14:45
  • MNI: US OCT FINAL SERV PMI 54.8 (55.2 FLASH, 54.2 SEP)
  • US OCT FINAL COMPOSITE PMI 54.6 (54.8 FLASH, 53.9 SEP)