AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6621 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 1- 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6601 High Jul 23
- PRICE: 0.6586 @ 16:13 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s appreciation has resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger. This resumes the uptrend and sights are on 0.6688, the Nov 7’ 24 high. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal.
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US TSYS: Tsys Bid With Stocks, Not the Reaction You Were Expecting
- Treasuries looked to finish higher Monday (TYU5 +11.5 at 111-11), curves bull steepening (2s10s +2.645 at 49.176) as rates & stocks rallied on initially muted response by Iran to US bombing over the weekend.
- Stocks extended gains even after Iran launched missiles at US base in Qatar, possible face saving measure as Iran warned US prior, most if not all missiles intercepted.
- Risk gained traction on dovish comments on potential rate cuts from Fed VC Bowman and Chicago Fed Goolsbee if inflation remains muted.
- Projected rate cut pricing gains traction vs. this morning's levels (*), Dec at the highest since May 12: Jul'25 at -5.9bp (-3.6bp), Sep'25 at -25.2bp (-19.5bp), Oct'25 at -32.6bp (-40.7bp), Dec'25 at -58.8bp (-49.9bp).
- Existing home sales unexpectedly ticked up in May to a 4.03M seasonally-adjusted annual pace, from 4.00M in April (and vs 3.95M survey).
- Flash S&P manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.0 for a second month (cons 51.0) after 50.2 in both March and April whilst services dipped to 53.1 (cons 53.0) after 53.7 in May.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Philly Fed, Cons Confidence, Fed Speakers
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 06/24 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (-41.9, --)
- 06/24 0830 Current Account Balance (-$303.9B, -$445.5B)
- 06/24 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (-0.1%, 0.0%)
- 06/24 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-0.12%, 0.0%), YoY (4.07%, 3.94%)
- 06/24 0915 Cleveland Fed Hammack on monetary policy
- 06/24 1000 Fed Ch Powell Semiannual Testimony to House
- 06/24 1000 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (-9, -10)
- 06/24 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (98.0, 99.8)
- 06/24 1000 Conf. Board Present Situation (135.9, --)
- 06/24 1000 Conf. Board Expectations (72.8, --)
- 06/24 1130 US Tsy $55B 6W Bill auction
- 06/24 1230 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks
- 06/24 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y note auction (91282CNL1)
- 06/24 1345 MN Fed Kashkari town hall event
- 06/24 1400 Boston Fed Collins on nation's housing
- 06/24 1600 Fed Gov Barr welcoming remarks
- 06/24 2015 KC Fed Schmid economic outlook
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 3: 170.47 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Jul - Aug ‘24 downleg
- RES 2: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 169.71 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 169.17 @ 08:07 BST Jun 23
- SUP 1: 167.46 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 165.55 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 164.95 Low Jun 13
- SUP 4: 164.04 50-day EMA
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and today’s strong start to this week’s session, reinforces a bullish theme. The cross has recently cleared 166.69, the Oct 31 ‘24 high. This signals scope for an extension towards 170.47, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the cross is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 165.55, the 20-day EMA.
