US-EU: French PM-US Tariffs A 'Catastrophe For Economic World'

Apr-03 08:40

Germany's caretaker Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaking for the first time since the US' announcement of 'reciprocal' tariffs on the world, says that President Donald Trump's decision on tariffs is "fundamentally wrong", and that "the entire world economy will suffer from this". Scholz says that "Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately". Scholz: "Even if we did nothing in response, the tariffs will cause problems for the US economy...There are intricate supply chains that you can't simply sever."

  • For all the talk of the EU being ready to go with a response, MNI's Policy team reports that, according to an EU source, the wait for any retaliation could be longer than expected (see 'MNI: EU Liberation Day Retaliation May Take Time - EU Source', 2 April).
  • Scholz's comments are slightly less doom-mongering than those of French PM Francois Bayrou, who said earlier in a meeting at the Senate, "This decision is a catastrophe for the economic world. It is a huge challenge for Europe. I believe it is also a catastrophe for the United States and for American citizens,"
  • Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has cancelled all engagements today as she focuses on potential responses and actions the gov't can take to protect the Italian economy. As we noted on 2 April, US VP JD Vance visits Rome 18-20 April with Meloni likely to use a meeting to try and argue the case for a loosening of measures (see 'ITALY: Meloni-Tariffs To Hit Producers Hard, Won't Rule Out Adequate Responses', 1221BST).
     

Historical bullets

GOLD: Gold gains $25.

Mar-04 08:35
  • Gold extends decent gains, that's over $25 bucks since Europe has started to Join the session 2 hours ago.
  • Silver is now also starting to see some spillover bids, and next immediate resistance in Gold comes at $2920.8/2956.2 - High Feb 27 / 24 and the bull trigger.

DUTCH AUCTION PREVIEW: DDA Initial Spread Guidance

Mar-04 08:31

The DDA has confirmed that the initial spread guidance for the new 10-year 2.50% Jul-35 DSL (ISIN: NL0015002F72) will be at +25.0 to +28.0bps vs the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049). Books will open at 9:00GMT / 10:00CET.

GILTS: Futures Test Initial Resistance

Mar-04 08:27

Gilts rally on feedthrough from the U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada.

  • While the tariffs were clearly defined ahead of time, the lack of a last-minute deal and presence of already intensifying growth worries have generated a bullish market reaction.
  • Futures through yesterday’s high, trading as high as 93.50 before backing off to ~93.30.
  • The short-term bullish technical setup remains intact in the contract, with initial resistance at the Feb 26 high (93.51) capping the early rally.
  • More meaningful resistance seen at the Feb 6 high and bull trigger (93.83).
  • Yields 3-4bp lower across the curve.
  • SONIA futures back to highs as pre-gilt open spillover pressure from a block sale in U.S. TY futures fades.
  • Little of note on the UK data calendar today, with supply set to come in the form of GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 gilt.