POWER: French, German Spot Power Indices Rises
Oct-16 11:01
The German and French spot power indices increased for Friday’s delivery with cooler weather spurring demand for electric heating, while wind generation is set to be relatively stable.
- The German spot power index increased to €104.41/MWh, compared with €100/MWh in the previous session.
- The German day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €109.46/MWh, compared with €103.72/MWh the day before.
- German wind output is forecast at 13.47GW during base load on Friday, broadly stable on the day. Solar PV output is forecast at 7.66GW during peak load on Friday, from 8.99GW on Thursday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 35.2GWh/h on Friday, from 36.58GWh/h on Thursday.
- German gas demand for residential and commercial consumers is forecast at 71.5mcm/d on Friday, up from 68.5mcm/d on Thursday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast at 56GW on Friday, from 56.71GW on Thursday.
- The French spot power index cleared at €91.51/MWh, compared with €86.4/MWh in the previous session.
- The French day-ahead peak load on the Epex Spot settled at €90.74/MWh, compared with €90.4/MWh the day before.
- French nuclear reactor availability was stable at 70% of capacity on Thursday morning.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 45.09GWh/h on Friday, from 44.33GWh/h on Thursday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 4.2GW during base load on Friday, from 4.55GW on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast at 8.29GW during peak load on Friday, from 8.16Gw on Thursday.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 39.33GWh/h on Friday, from 39.05GWh/h on Thursday.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 47.91GW on Friday, from 47.69GW on Thursday.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Still In Charge
Sep-16 10:58
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and has started the week on a firmer note - yesterday the metal traded to a fresh all-time high, once again. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3700.00 handle and $3705.2, a 1.382 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3532.8, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible recent reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Sequence Intact
Sep-16 10:52
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-10 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 113-13+ @ 11:41 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 112-25+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-04 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures rallied to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, strengthening current bullish conditions. Note that the recent impulsive rally highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-25+, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Monday Gains Held Ahead Of Retail Sales, Import Prices and 20Y Supply
Sep-16 10:49
- Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s modest, headline-light rally, having pared earlier gains that saw 5s to 10s push above yesterday’s range before retreating.
- Today sees a solid data docket headlined by retail sales and import prices, potential comments from President Trump as he departs for the UK after yesterday’s appeals court ruling re his attempt at firing Fed Governor Cook, and 20Y supply.
- Cash yields range from 0.8bp lower (2s) to 0.5bp higher (20s), with upcoming supply possibly behind that modest underperformance for 20s.
- TYZ5 trades at 113-13+ on another tepid overnight session with cumulative volumes at 190k.
- An earlier high of 113-16+ nudged above yesterday’s range although it hasn’t troubled resistance at 113-29 (Sep 5 high), continuing the bullish trend sequence.
- Data: Retail sales Aug (0830ET), Import prices Aug (0830ET), NY Fed services Sep (0830ET), IP/Cap Util Aug (0915ET), NAHB Sep (1000ET), Business inventories Jul (1000ET)
- Coupon issuance: $13bn 20Y re-open - 912810UN6 (1300ET). Last week’s 30Y auction was on the screws but with stronger details. That’s in contrast to last month’s 20Y auction which was in-line but with the bid-to-cover slipping from 2.79 to 2.54 and indirect take-up dropping from 67.4% to 60.6%.
- Bill issuance: $85bn 6W bills (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump departs the White House for London (0830ET, open press pool), Trump lands in London (1520ET)
