BUNDS: FOMC Meeting and presser are at the forefront Today

• The German Bund is flat going into the Cash Open, a tight 15 ticks range, and the contract has found support just short of the 2.80% in Yield on Friday, printed a 2.791% high.
• The 2.80% level equated to 128.57, and this will be the initial support area to watch.
• Fiscal loosening policy, Borrowing outlook, and expectation of Issuance increase next Year have all been suggested for the big moves seen in the longer end part of the curve, but no new overall trigger was seen on the actual moves.
• Resistance in Bund moves down to the 129.08 area, followed by 129.62, Friday's high.
• There are no notable Data for Today, so the Focus will turn to the Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders Meeting.
• TIMING (as per politico): Oval office Trump and Zelenskyy only at 13:15ET/18:15BST, Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders at 15:00ET/20.00BST.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.17 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. However, for now, the contract is trading inside a range and Friday’s sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12 
• PRICE: 147.39 @ 07:11 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.51 100-dma
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement Apr - Aug Upleg

A bearish threat in USDJPY remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.58, a trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of this level would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.