BUNDS: Focus is squarelly on the US NFP/AHE
- There's very little change for Bund and {us} Tnotes Overnight, both contract trades in a fairly tight low traded volume ranges going into the European session ahead of the NFP.
- The initial resistance for Bund at 133.86 is still untouched after only managing a 133.71 high this Week and it also failed Yesterday, after only printing a 133.61 high following the US IJC miss.
- Initial support for the German 10yr is still at 132.72, followed by the more important 132.34 gap.
- The German IP saw a big miss, but no real reaction, Bund is actually selling off a few ticks, more of a Cash driven flow move on the Open.
- There's no Tier 1 Data in Europe and of course, all eyes will be on the US NFP/AHE, the range for NFP is 105k/240k, median 175k and early Whisper 198k.
- SUPPLY: Belgium 2035, 2038, these are too small and won't impact Bund.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, BoE Pill, Fed Bowman, Kugler.
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EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 166.54 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.55 High Jan 7
- PRICE: 163.38 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 162.55/160.91 20-day EMA / Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
EURJPY has traded higher this week but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish short-term condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.
MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)
- MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)
- MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES 2.5% Y/Y
BTP TECHS: (H5) Southbound
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.45/120.51 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.08 @ Close Jan 7
- SUP 1: 119.01 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
- SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.51, the 20-day EMA.
