BUNDS: Focus is on Supply Today
* It was just a 7 ticks range for Bund Overnight and was trading flat going into the Cash Open. * ...
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BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $68.97 @ 07:12 BST Jul 28
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
The trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged and a bearish theme remains present. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to signal scope for further weakness. The contract has pierced support at the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has also been pierced. A resumption of the bear leg would expose $61.39, May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci point.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 120.65 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 120.21@ Close Jul 25
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play. Friday’s volatile session resulted in a break of support at 119.84, the Jul 14 low. A continuation of the bear cycle would open 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 120.65, the 20-day EMA. A break of this EMA would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.
BUNDS: Inflation, Growth, Fed and Month End this Week
- The German Bund is unaffected from the reports that the US and EU have struck a 15% Tariff deal, but the immediate focus for Global investors will be on the Equity move, a new record high for the US Emini, while the Estoxx Futures (VGU5) could now target the July high of 5488.00.
- For the German Bund, it seems that the 2.75% area in the 10yr Yield provided some support on Friday, although it did print as high as 2.769%.
- Immediate upside target is at 129.50, Today's opening Gap, ahead of 130.00, the initial resistance.
- Support comes at Friday's low of 128.84.
- This Week sees some European CPIs and Growth Data, while the FOMC will take centre stage. The Fed is expected to be unchanged at 4.50%.
- MONTH END: is Small for the US, Decent for the EU, and HUGE for the UK at +0.22yr vs a +0.23yr July Historic high.
