GERMAN DATA: Flash PMI: Prices soft; manufactured goods exports to the US strong
An unexpected German flash PMI report with the headline manufacturing index in line with expectations but misses of around 2 points versus consensus for services and composite. On the price front there was an easing of output prices while input prices were also subdued. That was similar to in France. However, there were strong export orders for manufactured goods, particularly from the US - which was not expected and which keeps the manufacturing index in line with expectations.
- "On the price front, May saw the rate of inflation in average charges for goods and services ease to a seven-month low, with slower service sector price increases coinciding with a renewed decline in manufacturing factory gate charges."
- "Input price inflation was unchanged from April’s six-month low, with a slight softening of cost increases in services offset by a slower fall in manufacturing purchase prices."
- "Goods production in the eurozone’s largest economy increased in May in line with a further uptick in new orders. Stronger demand from abroad was a key driver, with manufacturing new export orders rising at the fastest rate since early-2022. There were reports from a number of businesses of higher sales to the US, alongside some mentions of stronger demand from Europe. This contrasted with a ninth successive monthly decrease in new business in the service sector, where demand showed the steepest decline since September last year amid reports from surveyed firms of customer uncertainty. Total new business across manufacturing and services combined fell modestly and to the greatest extent since January."
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GILTS: Twist Steepening Early Today, Dovish BoE Repricing Extends
Dovish repricing in BoE-dated OIS supports the front end of the curve, while weakness in long end Tsys since Thursday’s close weighs on 10+-Year gilts.
- Futures 92.25 last (92.09-40 range).
- Initial support and resistance unchanged at 91.73/92.63.
- Yields are 3bp lower to 3bp higher, curve twist steepens.
- 2s10s ~10bp below cycle closing highs, last 68.2bp.
- 5s30s ~2.5bp below cycle closing highs, last 133.1bp.
- Risks seem titled towards continued steepening given the UK’s economic and fiscal fragility, while the macro environment adds further weight to that view.
- Illiquid market conditions in the long end and spill over from Tsys have provided further sources of pressure in recent weeks.
- BoE-dated OIS now showing 91bp of cuts through year-end vs. 88bp early today.
- Little of note on the UK calendar on Tuesday, which will leave post-holiday adjustments and macro cues at the fore.
- In addition to the Wednesday risk events outlined in our GBP STIR bullet, note that tomorrow will see the release of public sector finance data and the resulting DMO remit revision. We will provide greater colour on this later today.
SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.476 @ 08:23 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.269. The break higher signals scope for a test of $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Corrective Gains
- RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 93.44 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off
- RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 92.63 High Apr 8
- PRICE: 92.28 @ 08:01 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15
- SUP 2: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9
- SUP 3: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
- SUP 4: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support (con)
A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures between Apr 7 - 9 continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of it would open key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low (cont). Initial resistance is 92.63, Apr 8 high.
