EUROZONE DATA: Flash Estimate of Q/Q GDP Revised A Tenth Higher
Eurozone flash estimate of GDP for Q4 on a quarterly basis was revised up from preliminary flash estimate to 0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.4% in Q3, 0.2% ECB Dec f'cast), though it remained unrevised on an annual basis at 0.9% Y/Y (0.9% in Q3 as well). Q4 2024 remains the weakest quarter of 2024.
- Looking ahead the ECB forecast GDP growth of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025.
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MNI: RPT INVITE: MNI Webcast with ECB Frank Elderson On Feb 12
You are invited to listen to an MNI Webcast with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.
Details below:
- TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: 'Climate Change: Impact on Monetary Policy & Bank Supervision'
- DATE: Wednesday 12 February
- TIME: 10 am to 11:15 am London time / 11 am to 12:15 pm Frankfurt time
- This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
EUROZONE DATA: IP In Line With Tracking, Underlying Rebounds
Eurozone November industrial production was in-line with consensus and our tracking estimate at 0.2% M/M. The October reading was also revised up to 0.2% M/M from flat (as we had estimated). We estimate IP excluding Ireland grew between 0.7-0.8% M/M, a solid rebound from -0.2% in October.
- All five subcomponents rose M/M (this hasn't happened in the last 6 months), with four of the five accelerating from the October reading.
- Energy production bounced 1.1% M/M (vs -1.3% in Oct) - the highest monthly growth since June 2024.
- Similarly, durable consumer goods production increased 1.5% M/M (from -1.6% in Oct), and non-durable consumer goods production rose marginally by 0.1% (after falling 2.4% in Oct).
- Intermediate goods saw production rise a further 0.5% M/M following growth of 0.3% in Oct.
- Capital goods, whilst also recording growth at 0.5% M/M in November, moderated after October's solid rise of 1.7% - the lowest reading since June 2024.
- For more on the country breakdown see our preview bullet (EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Production Ex-Ireland Set To Rebound In Nov, 14 January).
- The underlying member country positive performance points to a potential rebound in Q4 quarterly IP after two successive quarterly declines, though PMI data remains weak with composite PMI remaining below 50.
JPY: USDJPY hovers at session low
- USDJPY still trades near its intraday low of 156.71, lower Yields have been somewhat supportive of the Yen, but still worth noting that despite the lower US 10yr Yield, it still hasn't challenged Yesterday's low of 4.7471%.
- Initial resistance in TYH5 is at 107.18+, Yesterday's high.
- For the USDJPY, next support is all the way down to 156.02 (31st Dec low).
