Gilts look to Bunds for early cues, initially selling off at the open, before a recovery.
- Futures -19 at 90.75 after basing at 90.65.
- Support and resistance of note located at 90.50 & 91.93, respectively. Post-BoE price action tilts focus back towards support.
- Yields 0.5bp lower to 1bp higher, curve twist steepens.
- Month-to-date highs intact/untested across the curve.
- Gilt/Bund spread sticks to the recent range after last week’s failed break below 160bp, last +1bp at 163.6bp.
- 2s10s less than 2bp off the November closing high (79.52bp), last 78.23bp.
- Final Q3 UK GDP data met expectations, with total business investment firmer than expected. Meanwhile, the Q3 current account deficit was narrower than expected.
- Elsewhere, a survey from jobs website Adzuna pointed to scaled back hiring ahead of the Budget, which isn’t a surprise.
- SONIA futures roughly in line with pre-gilt open levels, BoE-dated OIS pricing ~38bp of easing for ’26.
- Looking ahead, only lower tier UK data is due ahead if the Christmas break, with the Lloyds Business Barometer set to cross just after midnight