GERMAN DATA: Factory Orders Strong in March

• RES 4: 5254.79 20-day EMA 
• RES 3: 5047.00 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 (cont)
• RES 1: 4809.00 Low Dec 20 ‘24 (cont)              
• PRICE: 4500.00 @ 08:17 BST Apr 7 
• SUP 1: 4444 - intraday low  Round number support                   
• SUP 2: 4372.46 76.4% retracement of the Oct ‘23 - Mar ‘25 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)        
• SUP 4: 4302.00 Low Nov 15 ‘23 (cont)      

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following the latest impulsive sell-off. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. Today’s sell-off has resulted in a breach of a key support at 4699.00, the Nov 19 ‘24 low (cont). This exposes 4372.46, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct ‘23 - Mar ‘25 bull cycle. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is 4809.00, the Dec 20 ‘24 low (cont).

Gilts off highs, alongside a similar move in Bunds, while equities edge away from early lows. Tariff/trade war worries continue to dominate, as detailed elsewhere.

• Futures peaked at 94.50, last ~94.20.
• A break above session highs would expose the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3-Jan 13 bear leg drawn on a continuation chart (94.75).
• Initial support of note at the Mar 20 high (93.01)
• Yields 2-12bp lower, meaningful bull steepening on the curve.
• Gilt bulls managed to force a break below the Feb 2 lows in 10s (4.375%), but the move hasn’t stuck, last 4.390% vs. lows of 4.363%.
• 2s10s through the May ’22 closing highs, next upside level of note at the Oct ’21 closing high (62.85bp).
• 5s30s on for the highest close since October ’17. Next level of upside interest at the October ’17 closing high (118.36bp).

• RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24 (cont)     
• RES 3: 95.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 94.80 Intraday high                       
• PRICE: 94.30 @ 08:10 BST Apr 7
• SUP 1: 93.01 High Mar 20                                      
• SUP 2: 92.13 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 91.59 Low Mar 31   
• SUP 4: 91.03 Low Mar 28

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. A key resistance at 93.79, the Mar 4 high, has been cleared and this has been followed by a move through the 94.00 handle. The breach signals scope for a climb towards 94.75, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont). On the downside, initial support lies at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A firmer support is seen at 92.13, the 20-day EMA.