EUROZONE DATA: EZ Flash GDP A Tenth Below Expectations In Q4
Eurozone preliminary flash estimate of GDP for Q4 printed a tenth below expectations with 0.0% Q/Q (cons 0.1%, ECB Dec f'cast 0.2%) following solid growth of 0.4% Q/Q in Q3 - making it the weakest quarter of 2024. It was also a tenth below consensus in Y/Y terms at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 1.0% consensus, 0.9% prior).
- This weaker than expected reading follows Germany, France and Italy (three of the four main eurozone members) flash GDP readings printing softer than expected, offsetting the firmer than expected Spanish GDP.
- The ECB in December forecast annual real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025 after 0.7% in 2024 (different to the Y/Y quoted above for Q4).
Source: MNI, Eurostat
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Holding Higher
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.4 or +0.56% at $71.41
- Natural Gas down $0.14 or -3.51% at $3.799
- Gold spot up $8.09 or +0.31% at $2614.49
- Copper down $3.3 or -0.81% at $405.95
- Silver up $0.01 or +0.05% at $28.961
- Platinum up $8.16 or +0.9% at $912.55
EQUITIES: Bear Threat in E-mini S&P Remains Present
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the latest move down highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now.
- In China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 55.563 pts or -1.63% at 3351.763 and the HANG SENG ended 18.53 pts higher or +0.09% at 20059.95.
- Dow Jones mini up 56 pts or +0.13% at 42977, S&P 500 mini up 17.75 pts or +0.3% at 5976.25, NASDAQ mini up 87.75 pts or +0.41% at 21503.25.
CHINA: CFETS RMB Basket Tweak Drops USD, EUR, JPY Weighting, Adds MOP
China adjust the currency weightings as part of the CFETS RMB Index: Full basket of currencies now composed of 25 currencies, having included the Macau Pataca (MOP) for 2025:
- USD weighting dropped to 18.903% from 19.460%
- EUR weighting dropped to 17.902% from 18.080%
- JPY weighting dropped to 8.584% from 8.963%
Full list found here: https://iftp.chinamoney.com.cn/chinese/zxpl/20241231/3028340.html
