LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1656 High Nov 13 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1616 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.1586 @ 16:40 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Note that the pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, however, key short-term resistance to monitor is 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Last Thursday’s candle pattern is a doji - a potential reversal signal. A resumption of weakness would open key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.

• RES 4: 130.07 High Oct 24   
• RES 3: 129.74 61.8% retracement of the Oct 17 - Nov 20 bear leg  
• RES 2: 129.40 High Nov 13 
• RES 1: 129.21 High Nov 26 and key short-term resistance         
• PRICE: 128.81 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 1 
• SUP 1: 128.72/37 Low Nov 24 / 20 and the short-term bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A bear threat in Bund futures remains present and recent gains appear corrective. Key short-term support and the bear trigger to watch lies at 128.37, the Nov 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear leg and open 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 129.21, the Nov 26 high. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and open 129.40, the Nov 13 high.

US bond futures were all lower today with the 10-Yr down -03 to 113-08.  The 10-Yr retains its position above the 20-day EMA of 113-01+ as markets are set to start the trading week after the dis-jointed week last week due to holidays.  

Cash was weak today with the long end underperforming.  

• The 2-Yr is up +0.2bps at 3.496%
• The 5-Yr up +1.2bps at 3.61%
• The 10-Yr up +2.5bps at 4.044%
• The 30-Yr up +3.5bps at 4.701%

This week markets will look for any key messages from :

• Jerome H. Powell - Chair of the Fed - is slated to speak Monday at a panel discussion at Stanford.
• Michelle W. Bowman - Vice Chair for Supervision - is scheduled to give a speech this week (on bank supervision/regulation).

As the data flow continues, looking at the week ahead, the bond market will eye key data releases for potential further guidance on the upcoming rates decisions, specifically:

• Monday, December 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
• Wednesday, December 3: ADP Employment Change, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and ISM Services PMI.
• Thursday, December 4: Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims.
• Friday, December 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

For the issuance calendar overnight the focus for Monday will be Bill issuance with a 6-week maturity.