LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 19-Dec | 0700 | DE | PPI / GfK Consumer Climate |
| 19-Dec | 0745 | FR | PPI |
| 19-Dec | 0830 | EU | ECB Wage Tracker |
| 19-Dec | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19-Dec | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business / Consumer Confidence |
| 19-Dec | 1200 | EU | ECB Cipollone Remarks, Roundtable at Aspen Institute |
| 19-Dec | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 19-Dec | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 19-Dec | 1510 | EU | ECB Lane Lecture at Central Bank of Ireland |
| 22-Dec | 0900 | IT | PPI |
| 23-Dec | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 23-Dec | 0800 | ES | GDP (f) / PPI |
| 30-Dec | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 02-Jan | 0815 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 02-Jan | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 02-Jan | 0850 | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02-Jan | 0855 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02-Jan | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) / M3 |
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EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
- RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
- PRICE: 1.1591 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
The trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend and continues to suggest that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28
- RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14
- RES 1: 129.09 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 128.76 @ 05:50 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 128.50 Low Nov 17
- SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
- SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
- SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support
A bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Support at 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
US TSYS: 10-Yr Future Nears Key Tech Level on Moderate Gains
Cash did very little in the Asia trading day with yield moves across the curve muted. Bond futures were mostly up with the 10-Yr (TYZ5) up +02 to 112-27+, the 20-day EMA. It opened the day near the 50-day EMA and the modest gains consolidated a move above the 50-day and will now look onto the European open for any follow on.
- The 2-Yr is down -0.4bps to 3.57%.
- The 5-Yr is flat at 3.686%
- The 10-Yr is at 4.115%, flat on the day.
- The 30-Yr yield was up +0.3bps at 4.737%
Tonight for new issuance is 17-week bills and a 20-Yr US$16bn auction. The bid to cover for the last 20-Yr was 2.73x.
Key focus tonight will be the FOMC minutes. Please see here our preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Minutes_Preview_Nov2025_2e5fc3ae40.pdf
