LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1591 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish. Resistance to watch is  1.1669, the Oct 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend and continues to suggest that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. 

• RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28 
• RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 129.09 50-day EMA        
• PRICE: 128.76 @ 05:50 GMT Nov 19 
• SUP 1: 128.50 Low Nov 17      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Support at 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.

Cash did very little in the Asia trading day with yield moves across the curve muted.  Bond futures were mostly up with the 10-Yr (TYZ5) up +02 to 112-27+, the 20-day EMA.  It opened the day near the 50-day EMA and the modest gains consolidated a move above the 50-day and will now look onto the European open for any follow on.  

• The 2-Yr is down -0.4bps to 3.57%.
• The 5-Yr is flat at 3.686%
• The 10-Yr is at 4.115%, flat on the day.  
• The 30-Yr yield was up +0.3bps at 4.737%

Tonight for new issuance is 17-week bills and a 20-Yr US$16bn auction.  The bid to cover for the last 20-Yr was 2.73x.  

Key focus tonight will be the FOMC minutes.  Please see here our preview here:  https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Minutes_Preview_Nov2025_2e5fc3ae40.pdf