LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1598 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is trading below last week’s high. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. A break of this level would strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend and suggests that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.

• RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28 
• RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 128.80 Low Nov 10       
• PRICE: 128.57 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 17 
• SUP 1: 128.50 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A strong sell-off in Bund futures last week reinforces the current bearish condition and the contract is trading at its cycle lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 19.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal. 

JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -17 compared to settlement levels, after the release of Q3 GDP data.

• Q3 GDP (preliminary) in Japan was negative q/q, but not as much as the market forecast, thanks to upbeat business spending (+1.0%q/q versus -0.1% forecast). This was the first GDP decline since Q1 2024, but the detail paints a resilient underlying economic backdrop and comes ahead of fresh fiscal stimulus from the new Takaichi government.
• The data will likely bolster the Takaichi administration's conviction that aggressive fiscal spending is needed to shore up the economy, with the premier expected to unveil her first economic package as soon as this week. The Finance Ministry is preparing an economic package of roughly Y17tn, according to a Nikkei report published Saturday.
• Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer, with a steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 4.5bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a steepening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.3bps higher at 1.733%, a fresh cycle high.
• Meanwhile, the yield on 40-year climbed as high as 3.603%, while the 20-year yield reached 2.756%, the highest since 1999. (see chart)
• Swap rates are flat to 5bps higher.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP