LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22   
• RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 118.201 20-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 118.020 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Oct 10  
• SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6   
• SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1 

A short-term bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday, reinforcing a bear theme. Price is through 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.201, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal a possible reversal.

A little bit of risk off as we approach the London cross over. US equity futures have dipped into the red, although losses are modest at this stage. Not much beyond -0.10-0.20%. The earlier WSJ article on rare earths potentially weighing at the margins. "China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms, according to people familiar with the plan." (see this link). 

Regional Asia Pac equities are mostly off earlier highs as well. Few markets are left in the green. 

Also note Trump's Truth Social Post around the magnitude of unwinding investment flows if SCOTUS rules unfavourably on tariffs. Focus will also be on how quickly the government re-opens, with the afternoon Wednesday vote (US time)

In the FX space, AUD/JPY is back under 100.50, session highs rest at 100.875.

US Tsy futures are around flat, seeing little direction so far today but are up from lows, last 112-21+ for TYZ5.

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1627 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1584/91 20-day EMA / High Nov 7
• PRICE: 1.1562 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective and has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch remains the 20-day EMA, at 1.1584. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1624. A reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.