LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1627 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1587/91 20-day EMA / High Nov 7
• PRICE: 1.1562 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD has recovered from its recent lows. The move higher, for now, appears corrective. A short-term recovery is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1587. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1627. The trend remains bearish. A reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.

• RES 4: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 130.07 High Oct 24
• RES 2: 129.73 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 129.33 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: 128.82 @ 05:44 GMT Nov 10 
• SUP 1: 128.70 Low Oct 10     
• SUP 2: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading lower this morning. The move down undermines a recent bear theme and the contract has cleared a number of important support points. The 50-day EMA, at 129.14, has been cleared and price is through 128.92, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Sights are on 128.2, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 129.33, the 20-day EMA.

AUD/JPY sits just off session highs (100.56), last near 100.45, as we approach the London crossover. Multiple supports in play, with risk on tone in equities amid hopes US government shutdown end is within sight the main driver. Higher AU yields another positive, with earlier Hauser remarks around limited spare capacity likely aiding front end AU yields. The initial focus should return back toward 101.50, a break above here is needed for the bullish trend to re-engaged and momentum higher return. Note though, correlations are strongest with global equities, around 94% in levels terms over the past 6 months (the equivalent correlation with AU-JP 2yr yield differentials is around flat over the same period). The initial focus should return back toward 101.50, a break above here is needed for the bullish trend to re-engaged and momentum higher return.