LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 04-Dec | 0830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04-Dec | 1000 | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 04-Dec | 1300 | EU | ECB Cipollone Chairs Panel on Fiscal Policy |
| 04-Dec | 1500 | EU | ECB Lane at Fiscal Policy Conference |
| 04-Dec | 1800 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Business Innovation Awards |
| 05-Dec | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05-Dec | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production / Foreign Trade |
| 05-Dec | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05-Dec | 0900 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05-Dec | 1000 | EU | EZ GDP 3rd (Regular) |
| 05-Dec | 1510 | EU | ECB Lane in Panel at CEPR Paris Symposium |
| 08-Dec | 0700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 08-Dec | 1500 | EU | ECB Cipollone Lecture in Frankfurt |
| 09-Dec | 0700 | DE | Trade Balance |
| 10-Dec | 0900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 10-Dec | 1055 | EU | ECB Lagarde Interview on Currencies/Digital Euro |
| 11-Dec | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting |
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EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.1728 High Oct 17
- RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.1577/1618 Low Oct 22 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.1514 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 1.1498 Low Nov 3
- SUP 2: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
A bear leg in EURUSD remains intact. Last week’s move down resulted in a breach of an important support at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has also been cleared. An extension of the bear leg would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. First resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 130.07 High Oct 24
- RES 1: 129.42129.73 20-day EMA / High Oct 28
- PRICE: 129.20 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 129.06 Low Nov 3
- SUP 2: 128.92 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7
Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. However, price has pierced a key support at 129.13, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 128.92, a Fibonacci retracement. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
AUD: AUD Steadies As Bullock Presents Cautious Outlook, AUD/NZD Eyeing 1.1500
AUD/USD has edged back higher as RBA's Bullock delivered her post RBA meeting press conference. We were last 0.6530, after getting to 0.6518 post the RBA. The market may have been looking for something a little more hawkish from the statement/forecasts. Bullock's tone was cautious though and she openly questioned how much more easing would be delivered this cycle (noting they are close to neutral) and reiterated that as the RBA didn't raise rates as much (compared to other global central banks) and therefore might not need to cut as much.
- The AUD/NZD cross has returned to fresh session highs in latest dealings, last 1.1485/90, against earlier lows of 1.1446. The crosses may remain the preferred expression for AUD longs as opposed to the USD, with the USD index levels still holding up (JPY is the only major to firm against the USD so far today).
- For the AUD/NZD cross, upside focus will be on the 1.1500 area. Beyond that region we have the 1.1660 area, last seen back in 2013.
- Note in NZ tomorrow, Q3 jobs and wages data are released Wednesday and with spare capacity an important driver of monetary easing, will be monitored closely as there has been excess supply in the labour market.
