LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• PRICE: 121.80 @ 07:17 BST Oct 17
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level         
• SUP 2: 120.49 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 119.48 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25t

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.

• RES 4: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 152.61/153.27 High Oct 14 / 10 and the bull trigger   
• RES 1: 151.40 High Oct 16 
• PRICE: 150.67 @ 07:10 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 149.38 Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: 148.86 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 147.82 High Oct 3  
• SUP 4: 147.09 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 

A short-term corrective bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact and Friday’s print below the 20-day EMA, at 150.12, strengthens the short-term bear condition. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 50-day EMA, at 148.86. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 153.27, the Oct 10 high.

• MNI: GERMANY SEP PPI -0.1% M/M, -1.7% Y/Y