LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Nov | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Nov | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Nov | 0900 | IT | Foreign Trade |
| 14-Nov | 1000 | EU | GDP 2nd Est (Flash) / Trade Balance |
| 14-Nov | 1030 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote at ECB Banking Supervision Forum |
| 14-Nov | 1330 | EU | ECB Elderson Remarks at COP30 Finance Day |
| 14-Nov | 1500 | EU | ECB Lane Panel on International Macro & Finance |
| 15-Nov | 1330 | EU | ECB Schnabel Chairs Panel at Econ/FinStab Conference |
| 17-Nov | 0815 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Euro Finance Week |
| 17-Nov | 0900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 17-Nov | 1445 | EU | ECB Lane Lecture on ECB MonPol |
| 17-Nov | 1600 | EU | ECB Cipollone at ECON Digital Euro Hearing |
| 18-Nov | 1000 | EU | ECB Elderson at Banking Supervision Press Conference |
| 19-Nov | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 20-Nov | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ Construction Output |
| 20-Nov | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Germany will hold another auction today while Spain and France will hold auctions tomorrow. Yesterday the ESM held a syndication while the Netherlands, Italy and Germany held auctions. We pencil in issuance of E37.2bln for the week, up from E20.7bln last week. France announced its 2026 funding plan yesterday (see summary below). There is also the potential for a Slovakian syndication, but we think next week is slightly more likely.
- Germany will return to the market today to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).
- Cancelled auction: Greece has announced that it will not hold its scheduled auction today.
- Spain will then come to the market tomorrow to hold a Bono/Obli auction. On offer will be a combined E4.0-5.0bln of the 1.25% Oct-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G34), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61) and the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% Oct-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P33).
- France will come to the market tomorrow to hold an MT OAT auction for E9.5-11.5bln. Both the on-the-run issues will be reopened: the 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and the 2.70% Feb-31 OAT (ISIN: FR001400Z2L7) alongside the 2.50% May-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0011883966) and the 0% Nov-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0014002WK3).
- France will return to the market tomorrow with an IL OAT auction. On offer will be a combined E0.75-1.25bln of the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Range Breakout
- RES 4: 121.93 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 121.73 High Jun 13 and a key resistance (cont)
- RES 2: 121.38 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.24 High Oct 14
- PRICE: 121.09 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 119.90 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.07 Low Sep 25
- SUP 3: 118.36 Low Sep 3 and key support
- SUP 4: 118.00 Round number support
BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is through a key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. This opens 121.38, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, support to watch lies at 119.90, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible short-term reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Impulsive Rally Strengthens A Bull Theme
- RES 4: 92.72 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11 (cont)
- RES 2: 92.14 0.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 1: 92.06 High Aug 14
- PRICE: 91.95 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 91.60/90.90 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction
- SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following recent strong impulsive gains. Yesterday’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price has cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The breach opens 92.14 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.
