LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.91 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 175.88 @ 07:15 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: 174.87 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. First key support to watch lies at 174.87, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, the cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A reversal higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 2: 91.82 High Sep 24 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 91.39 High Oct 13  
• PRICE: 91.24  @ Close Oct 13
• SUP 1: 90.61 Low Oct 10     
• SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction 
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support  

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme and note that Monday’s climb resulted in a breach of a key short-term resistance at 91.28, the Sep 24 high. A continuation higher would pave the way for an extension towards key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 11 high. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme.

• Private regular AWE lower than expected, unemployment higher, a smaller 3-month LFS employment employment growth number and lower vacancies.
• All in all a disappointing UK labour market report - likely increasing the probability that Governor Bailey wants to keep optionality for voting for a Q4 cut.
• The brighter points were: Public sector bonuses were higher than expected (bringing up the total whole economy pay number) while there were some upward revisions to payroll growth so the 3-month fall in payrolls is only 0.2k (from 38k fall to the 3-months of Aug that was revised to -12.6k).