LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 24-Oct | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 24-Oct | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 24-Oct | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0900 | EU | S&P PMIs (p) / ECB Cipollone on International Finance |
| 24-Oct | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 27-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey / M3 |
| 27-Oct | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 27-Oct | 0915 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote on Banking Governance |
| 28-Oct | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 28-Oct | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business / Consumer Confidence |
| 28-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 29-Oct | 0800 | ES | GDP (p) |
| 29-Oct | 1100 | IT | PPI |
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CHINA: Country Wrap: Electricity Consumption Records Steady Growth
Market Summary: The Hang Seng is troubled by a T10, yet it up +0.91% whilst CSI 300 rose +0.71%, Shanghai Comp +0.63% and Shenzhen up +0.97%. The Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1077 Per USD; Estimate 7.1107 whilst bonds were steady with the CGB 10-Yr at 1.80%
- China's electricity consumption, a key barometer of economic activity, continued its steady growth in August, according to data from the National Energy Administration on Tuesday. The country's total power use increased 5 percent year on year to nearly 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours last month, according to the data. (source Xinhua)
- Intelligent and high-end manufacturing is taking the spotlight in China, with innovations ranging from new energy vehicles and smart robots to advanced photovoltaics and energy storage equipment. The 2025 World Manufacturing Convention, which is being held from Saturday to Tuesday in Hefei of east China's Anhui Province, is bringing these frontier achievements together for global participants. "Anhui is focusing on a broad swathe of cutting-edge and emerging industries, including smart manufacturing, biomedicine, electric vehicles and renewable energy, which are areas of collaboration that the American business community can be a part of," said Noah Fraser, senior vice president of China operations at the US-China Business Council (USCBC), at a sideline event of the convention. (source Xinhua)
GBPUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
- RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- PRICE: 1.3508 @ 06:10 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 1.3458 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
- SUP 2: 1.3453 Low Sep 22
- SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
STIR: RBA Dated OIS Sharply Firmer After August CPI Beat
RBA-dated OIS pricing is sharply firmer across meetings after today’s CPI data.
- The headline August CPI print was 3.0%y/y, against a 2.9% market consensus and 2.8% July outcome. The trimmed mean was 2.6% y/y, after printing 2.7% in July.
- Today's data will reinforce some caution for the RBA around further easing. It is likely to firm the no-change stance next week (although market pricing has priced in very little chance of a move).
- The Q3 CPI print is out on Oct 29, with the RBA outcome on Nov 4.
- A 25bp rate cut in September is given a 0% probability, with a cumulative 17bps (22bps pre-data) of easing priced by year-end.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Post Vs. Pre-CPI
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
