LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 23-Oct | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23-Oct | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde at Euro Summit in Brussels |
| 23-Oct | 1430 | EU | ECB Lane Award Acceptance Speech |
| 23-Oct | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 24-Oct | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 24-Oct | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0900 | EU | S&P PMIs (p) / ECB Cipollone on International Finance |
| 24-Oct | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 27-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey / M3 |
| 27-Oct | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 27-Oct | 0915 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote on Banking Governance |
| 28-Oct | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 28-Oct | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business / Consumer Confidence |
| 28-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 29-Oct | 0800 | ES | GDP (p) |
| 29-Oct | 1100 | IT | PPI |
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
- RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- PRICE: 1.3510 @ 06:17 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: 1.3453 Low Sep 22
- SUP 2: 1.3449 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
- SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3449, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 117.949 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 117.850 High Sep 19
- RES 1: 117.810 High Sep 22
- PRICE: 117.760 @ 05:56 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: 117.601 0.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.)
Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 117.690 and 117.630, the Sep 2 and Aug 25 lows respectively. Clearance of these levels reinstates a bearish theme. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.
US TSYS: Futures Unchanged In A Quiet Session
The TYZ5 range has been 112-21+ to 112-24 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-22+, unchanged from the previous close.
- No cash market today.
- 10-Year Yields could not extend below 4.00% and have bounced as the Fed could not meet the markets very dovish expectations. The first buy-zone is now back towards the 4.20% area where I suspect demand should return initially. A sustained break through 4.00% is needed for the focus to then turn towards the 3.80% area.
- MNI BRIEF: Fed's Musalem Sees Limited Room For More Rate Cuts. The Federal Reserve was justified in cutting interest rates last week but still-elevated inflation and a higher neutral rate mean the central bank might not have room to reduce borrowing cuts much further, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Monday.
- Robin Brooks on X: “Global yield curves are steepening, but the truth is that they're still inordinately flat in the big picture. The US yield curve is a case in point. 5y5y forward Treasury yield used to be a full 3 percentage points above 5y yield. We're going back to that.”
- "DIMON SAYS TRUMP ADMIN HAS NOT ATTACKED THE DEFICIT YET, ,SAYS HARD FOR FED TO CUT IF INFLATION DOESN'T GO AWAY : CNBC.” - BBG
- Data/Events: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Current Account Balance, S&P Global US PMI’s, Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
