LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 2: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1789 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 1.1732 @ 06:13 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 1.1639 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared reinforcing a bull cycle. This signals scope for 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1639. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

Market Summary:  The major bourse in China are off to a good start this week, with the Hang Seng up +0.30%, the CSI 300 +0.85%, Shanghai up +0.22% and Shenzhen up +0.65% on a day when economic data shows the economy continues to expand.  The Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1056 Per USD; Estimate 7.1231 and bonds are marginally lower in yield with the 10-Yr at 1.79%

• New and used house prices continued to decline in August, with used home prices down more than July.  New home prices declined -0.30% , from -0.31% in July.  The last month that recorded a positive print was May 2023.  Used home prices declined -0.58%, from -0.55% in July.  The last month that recorded a positive print was April 2023.  (source MNI)
• Multiple data releases today pointed to a very modest slowing in the economic expansion in China.  Retail sales expanded +3.4% for August, below expectations of +3.8% and prior month of +3.7%.  Industrial Production YoY expanded +5.2%, missing expectations of +5.6% and below the prior month of +5.7%.  Investments in Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY rose a mere +0.5% from +1.6% in July.  China's moderation is following a better than expected first half, with the data showing a likely return to expectations rather than anything worrying.  (source MNI)
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• RES 4: 130.27 High Jun 20  
• RES 3: 130.05 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear cycle    
• RES 2: 129.66 High Jul 22 
• RES 1: 129.09/50 High Sep 12 / High Aug 5 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 128.61 @ 05:53 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 128.25 Low Sep 4      
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Recent gains in Bund futures resulted in a break of resistance at 128.87, the Aug 28 high and short-term bull trigger. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Price has moved through the 129.00 handle, signalling scope for an extension towards 129.50, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. The latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective.