FOREX: EURJPY Soars Amid Higher Core Yields, Russia/Ukraine Optimism
Feb-12 18:20
- Wednesday’s session in FX has been characterised by a weaker yen, with EURJPY’s 1.85% rally particularly standing out. Price dynamics kickstarted across the APAC session but were then bolstered by a hotter-than-expected US CPI report, assisting the hawkish repricing across core fixed income markets.
- The single currency received an additional boost in late trade, as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict
- EURUSD had a brief flurry down to 1.0317 on the US CPI release, however, the pair has reversed back above 1.04 and is now testing the 50-day EMA, intersecting today a 1.0427. This marks a key resistance, and a clear break of it would be a bullish development.
- For EURJPY, session highs just below 161.00 display an intra-day range greater than 300 pips. The cross has extended the recovery from Monday’s lows to an impressive 3.5%. While we have noted that the move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind, the significant reversal and fundamental developments places the short-term focus on an even stronger reversal. Key short-term resistance is at 161.09, the 50-day EMA.
- Overall, the USD index is 0.3% lower on the session as markets shrugged off the inflation readings and focused more on the recovering equities and ongoing developments surrounding the US administration. Alongside the Trump/Putin call, economic adviser Hassett stated that reciprocal tariffs are a ‘work in progress’, potentially hinting of room for negotiation and further fostering a more optimistic tone for risk. Indeed, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have bounced back well from near 1% losses on the session to trade back in positive territory ahead of the APAC crossover.
- NZ inflation expectations data is due overnight, before UK GDP and Swiss CPI headline the European data docket. In the US, PPI figures are scheduled.
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PIPELINE: Midday Corporate Bond Roundup: Issuance Picking Up
Jan-13 18:14
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
STIR: BLOCK: Mar'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Tree
Jan-13 17:53
- 10,000 0QH5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call trees, 3.5 net (2-legs over) at 1246:42ET
OPTIONS: Mixed Euro Rates Trade Monday, Leaning Toward Upside
Jan-13 17:52
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- OEH5 116.75/116.50ps, bought for 15 in 13k.
- RXG5 130/129ps, sold at 20 in 4k.
- ERG5 97.87/97.75/97.62p fly, bought for 0.75 in 2k.
- ERH5 97.4375/97.5625/97.6875, sold at 4.25 in 1k
- 0RG5 97.875/98.00/98.12c fly, bought for 1.75 in 4k.
- 0RG5 98.00/98.125/98.25c ladder, bought for 1 in 6k.
