MNI SNB Review - December 2025: Remaining Neutral

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Full pdf includes a rough transcript of the post-announcement press conference Q&A as well as 17 analyst views on the decision.

Executive Summary:

• SNB held its policy rate at 0.0%, meeting market and analyst consensus
• The conditional inflation forecast was broadly unchanged at the key end-of-horizon
• Over the short term, the inflation forecast was downwardly revised, reducing room for an undershoot which in isolation may have pointed towards further easing. The message here could be that despite low readings incoming, the SNB’s conviction for a medium-term CPI uptick remains firm
• In the press Q&A, Schlegel refrained from giving forward guidance, drawing attention to the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach, but gave the impression a cut into negative territory remains quite far away
• Market pricing was little changed over the decision announcement and press Q&A. Some chance of a hike by September 2026 continues to be implied, which was initially prompted by the global core FI repricing seen this week