EURJPY TECHS: Clears Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 178.54 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 175.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.88 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.40. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

SOFR & Treasury options shifted to low delta call buying - particularly in Jan'26 10Y calls after a slow start to the session. Underlying futures extended highs after the ADP showed a decline in jobs - futures holding narrow range since late morning, while projected rate cut hold firmer vs late Monday levels (*): Dec'25 at -16.8bp (-15.5bp), Jan'26 at -27.1bp (-25.1bp), Mar'26 at -38.3bp (-35.2bp), Apr'26 at -44.9bp (-41.3bp).

• SOFR Options: (Note Nov options expire Friday)
  • Update, over +25,000 SFRF6 96.62/96.75/97.00 2x3x1 call flys, 2.25-2.75 vs. 96.435/0.09%
  • +10,000 SFRZ5 96.31 calls, 3.5 ref 96.245
  • +4,000 SFRF6 96.43/96.62/96.75 call flys, 3.5
  • +10,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 5.25 ref 96.905
  • -5,250 0QZ5 96.93/97.06 call spds, 4.0
  • -3,000 SFRX5 96.50 calls, 1.5 ref 96.25
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 96.43/96.50, 0.5 vs. 96.28/0.05%
  • Block, +5,000 0QH6 96.25/96.50 put spds, 3.5 ref 96.895
  • 1,300 SFRX5 96.18/96.25 box
  • Block, -10,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 0.25
  • Block/screen, 4,000 SFRG6 96.68/96.81/96.87/97.00 call condors, 0.75
  • 4,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.56 call spds vs. SFRF6 96.56/96.75 call spds, 2.5 net/Jan bought over
  • +4,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.50/96.75 broken put flys, 2.5
  • -2,000 SFRX5 96.18/96.31 strangles, 0.5
  • 9,350 SFRX 96.18 puts, .25-0.50 total volume over 17,500
  • over 8,300 SFRX5 96.25 puts
  • -6,500 SFRZ5 96.43/96.68 call spds, 0.25-0.50
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 USZ5 120/122 call spds 4
  • 6,100 TYZ5 117.5/120 1x2 call spds ref 113-00
  • Update over +117,000 TYF6 114 calls, 29 vs. 112-30.5 to -31.5/0.30% (open interest 51,680)
  • 1,000 TUZ5 104.5/104.62 1x2 call spds
  • 2,000 FVZ5 109.75/110/110.5/110.75 call flys ref 109-14
  • 1,250 TYZ5/TYF6 115 call calendar spds
  • 2,000 TYZ5 111.5/112 put spds, 1
  • -3,500 TYZ5 112.75 calls, 24 vs. 112-23.5/0.47%
  • +2,500 Wednesday weekly TY 112.5 puts, 1 vs. 112-26/0.28%
  • +2,500 Wednesday weekly TY 112.75 calls, 21 vs. 112-24/0.45%

• Crude prices are higher today, amid strength in oil product markets, with WTI on track for its highest close since Nov 3.
• WTI Dec 25 is up by 1.5% at $61.0/bbl.
• In the US, the House will return tomorrow to vote on the continuing resolution that could reopen the government by Friday. The bill to provide US government funding until Jan 30 passed the Senate with the support of a number of Democrats.
• For WTI futures, an upward corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.85, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
• Initial resistance is at $62.59, the Oct 24 high. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
• Despite the broader pressure on the USD, meanwhile, following the release of weak US ADP jobs data, spot gold has unwound earlier gains to be broadly unchanged on the day at $4,119/oz.
• There may be some short-term positioning dynamics in play here, given the 3.5% rally from last Thursday’s lows.
• From a technical perspective, the downleg for gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction, which has allowed an overbought condition to unwind.
• Recent gains suggest that correction is now over, with price above a key support at the 50-day EMA at $3,898.9. Initial resistance is seen at $4,161.4, the Oct 22 high, a clearance of which would refocus attention on $4,381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.