JAPAN DATA: Japan Nov Core CPI +2.7% Y/Y; Energy Price +6.0% Y/Y
Dec-19 23:55
- Japan's national average core consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose 2.7% from the year earlier in November, fastened from the growth of 2.3% marked in October.
- Energy rose 6.0% y/y, accelerating from the 2.3% y/y growth registered in the previous month.
- The underlying inflation rate measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) increased 2.4% y/y, picking up from the 2.3% growth last month.
- Prices for ex-perishables rose 4.2% y/y, higher than the 3.8% y/y increase in October.
- Prices for household spending rose 4.1% y/y, down from the 6.0% y/y increase reported last month, and prices for accommodation increase 8.0% y/y, up from the previous 7.7% rise.
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**MNI: JAPAN OCT EXPORTS +3.1% Y/Y; SEPT -1.7%
Nov-19 23:51
- MNI: JAPAN OCT EXPORTS +3.1% Y/Y; SEPT -1.7%
- JAPAN OCT EXPORTS POST 1ST Y/Y RISE IN 2 MONTHS
- JAPAN POSTS JPY461.2 BLN TRADE DEFICIT IN OCT
CHINA: Prime Rates Unlikely to Change Today.
Nov-19 23:47
- China will announce 1- and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at today’s fixing.
- Having cut by 25bps in October and given there have been some signs of stabilization in economic data, it seems unlikely that there will be a further cut today.
- The 1-year is the reference rate for corporate loans at 3.10% is at recent lows.
- Equally the 5-year (reference rate for mortgages) at 3.60% is at recent lows.
- Authorities have provided significant stimulus since September to the economy with the key objective to stabilize.
- Uncertainties exist as to the looming trade war from President Trump in the White House, and it would seem logical that Chinese authorities prefer to keep some flexibility in their policy tools ahead of what could be a challenging 2025.
JGBS: Futures Stronger Overnight As Geopol Tensions Increase
Nov-19 23:36
In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are stronger, +16 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished the NY session with a bull flattener.
- Heightened geopolitical tensions lent to an early bid in EGBs, Treasuries in tow after Ukraine launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia. The Kremlin has formally approved a further tweak to its nuclear doctrine, allowing for the use of nuclear weaponry in the case of long-range missiles used to strike inside Russian territory.
- Risk-off support moderated as the session wore on, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters that the US has "seen no reason" to adjust its nuclear posture following Russian President Vladimir Putin's move to revise Russia's nuclear doctrine.
- Short-end rates were pushed higher in the second half of the session, as projected rate cut pricing into early 2025 was tempered. KC Fed Schmid said, "While now is the time to begin dialling back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle."
- US equities mostly recovered from an opening Ukraine-Russia war swoon (-1.25%). Shares in Nvidia closed 4.9% higher, ahead of its quarterly results tomorrow.
- Today, the local calendar will see Trade Balance, Machine Tool Orders and Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
